Hail in Colorado, June 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
323 PM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION RELATIVELY SHORT DUE TO DEVELOPING SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.  MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS EAST AS EVIDENCED BY 3 PM 57F SURFACE DEW POINT READING AT
PUEBLO AND 60+F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT LAMAR AND SPRINGFIELD.

ATMOSPHERE STILL CAPPED OVER MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEGINNING TO SEE
ACTIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CENTERED ON THE
I-25 CORRIDOR IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT WITH MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS LARGE HAIL AND WINDS.  ALSO...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

MILD TEMPERATURES ON TAP TONIGHT...WITH VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.  POPS GENERALLY NIL ON TUESDAY
WITH JUST SOME LOW GRADE POPS INSERTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
EVEN THOUGH FIRE DANGER IS QUITE HIGH...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM TUESDAY...BUT
INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK...PLEASE SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CNTRL...S CNTRL...SERN CO WED-THU...
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE WED-SUN...

WED...THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY OFF THE CA...AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING
OVER NM WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCREASING
ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL...S CNTRL...AND SERN CO. SFC/PBL DRYLINE WILL
MIX OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH RELATIVELY DEEP DRIER AIR TO MIGRATE
INTO THE ROCKIES. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE +18C TO +20C
AND WOULD SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F BELOW 6K FT MSL
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 90S ABOVE K6 FT MSL. DAYTIME
MINIMUM HUMIDITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ALONG WITH HAINES
INDICES AROUND 6. LONG TERM SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT STRESSED
FUELS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ONLY
PART OF THE RED FLAG CRITERIA THAT WILL BE MARGINAL. AS USUAL...
MET MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE WINDS THAN THE MAV MOS.
WILL GO WITH A 50-50 BLEND. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
THUS...ALL THE CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT THE NEED FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AND WILL ISSUE IT FOR ALL FIRE DISTRICTS(220>237)
FROM 18Z-03Z. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON 14 JUN ARE COS
94F/1994... PUB 101F/1952...AND ALS 88F/2004. THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND
OUR VERY LOW POPS MAY BE OVERDONE...HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THEM IN
FOR CONTINUITY.

THU...WED NGT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY POOR SETTING
THE STAGE FOR THU. FIRST 60-80KT ULJ STREAK MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER STRONG ULJ STREAK...90-100KT...
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ON ITS HEELS. H5 WINDS INCREASE
30-40KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN CO LATE
THU. SHOULD SEE DEEP MIXING AGAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
AGAIN...DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 5-15 PERCENT...HAINES
AROUND 6...AND LONG TERM SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS.
THE POTENTIAL SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH
STRONGER THAN WEDS WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-32 MPH AND GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH ARE VERY MUCH POSSIBLE. IF FIRES START AND THESE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS EXIST ON THU...THEN FIRES WILL BECOME
VERY ERRATIC AND DANGEROUS. THERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT EXCELLENT RUN-
TO-RUN CONTINUITY... SO WILL ALSO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THU FROM 18Z-03Z FOR ALL FIRE DISTRICTS(220>237)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE BACK TO BACK.
H7 TEMPERATURES WILL BE +18C TO +20C AGAIN...SO 100F POSSIBLE
BELOW 6K FT MSL. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON 15 JUN ARE COS
94F/1978...PUB 102F/2000...AND ALS 88F/2000. JUST LIKE WED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW AND PLAN TO MAINTAIN
CURRENT VERY LOW POPS.

FRI...WEATHER SYSTEM BLOWS THROUGH THU NGT AND FRI MORNING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
FRI. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE STRING OF 90+ HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
PUEBLO...CURRENTLY AT 11 DAYS IN A ROW.

SAT THROUGH MON...WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. H7
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE +18C TO +21C...AND A COUPLE OF DAYS
HAVE A BIG AREA OF +20C OR GREATER. COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100F AGAIN BELOW 6K FT MSL EACH DAY. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...IN THIS PATTERN...IS VERY LOW OR NIL. METZE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220-COZ221-COZ222-COZ223-COZ224-COZ225-COZ226-
COZ227-COZ228-COZ229-COZ230-COZ231-COZ232-COZ233-COZ234-COZ235-
COZ236-COZ237.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220-COZ221-COZ222-COZ223-COZ224-COZ225-COZ226-
COZ227-COZ228-COZ229-COZ230-COZ231-COZ232-COZ233-COZ234-COZ235-
COZ236-COZ237.

&&

77/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
649 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-131300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
649 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS TODAY.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG OR NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AFTER 200 PM MDT...THEN SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND WIND GUSTS OVER
60 MPH.  ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF WHAT
IS CONSIDERED NECESSARY FOR GOOD STORM ROTATION...THERE COULD ALSO
BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO TODAY.

THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM
MDT.  THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDES
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN
TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT.  REGARDLESS...FUELS REMAIN CRITICAL AND CONDITIONS VERY
DRY...SO THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH. A HIGH LEVEL OF
CAUTION NEEDS TO CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEARBY PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY...AND COMBINED WITH
ONGOING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO
PLAINS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 PM MDT MON JUN 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             COLORADO SPRINGS        38.83N 104.82W
06/12/2006  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RMG