Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in California, September 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT WED SEP 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND AN
INCREASE IN COASTAL CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT DRY WEATHER
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS AFTERNOON...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE BUT WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUING TO TREND
ONSHORE...WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT. CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND IS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE
SOON AFTER SUNSET.

CUMULUS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS THU AND FRI
AFTERNOONS...BUT CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY THEN AS DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE AS THE MARINE LAYER BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF AND BRING A
RETURN MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE
FOG IN THE COASTAL AREAS THU MORNING. NOT SO MUCH COOLING IN THE
DESERT AND MTNS...BUT THE COAST AND VALLEYS WILL COOL DOWN 5-10
DEGREES. ALL THIS DUE TO THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT AND
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST...A PATTERN THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE LATEST RUNS SHOW ONLY A SIGNIFICANT REBUILDING OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LOCATION DOES NOT FAVOR
MOIST SUB TROPICAL FLOW INTO SOCAL. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY WHICH HAS REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THE MOISTURE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR NOW SHOWS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL AIRPORTS. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
BEGIN TO RECOVER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS
OVER THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. THIS COULD BRING AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG
BACK TO THE COAST THIS EVENING WHICH COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD
BE GONE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SOME
MOISTURE SO EXPECT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM BASES SHOULD BE AROUND
8000 FEET MSL WITH TOPS ABOVE FL400 AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON...SEE LAXHWOSGX.

&&

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...HORTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT WED SEP 6 2006

CAZ055-056-058-070200-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
400 AM PDT WED SEP 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
INDEX IS LOW TO MODERATE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE CAUSING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FOR THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER ACTIVATION IS NOT
REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MM

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