Damaging Wind in Arkansas, September 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES. FOR
THE MOST PART...HELD OFF ON THUNDERSTORMS IN UNTIL AFTER 21Z EXCEPT
FOR HRO AND BPK. MAIN SHOW WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH RAIN CONTINUING IN THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1239 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006/

UPDATE...
KLZK RADAR SHOWS CELL INITIATION IN NORTHWEST SECTOR OF CWFA.
INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS WELL AS DEW POINTS. DEW
POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST AREAS NOW.
STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
SURFACE. ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED AND READY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH SOME TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006/

DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
ATTM...WITH ELEVATED STORMS BEHIND IT AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM
SECTOR ADVANCES NORTHWARD. SURFACE-BASED HEATING...ALONG WITH
OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS WILL ALLOW FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.

GRADIENT BETWEEN 989 MB LOW IN THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN...SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE.

SEVERE THREAT BOTH DAYS WILL RUN THE GAMUT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL INCREASE THE HAIL THREAT...WHILE INCREASING SHEAR AND
HELICITY WILL AID IN THE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT.

FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING BACK INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL
TO NORTHWESTERLY...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA AT MID-
WEEK...ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

AVIATION...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
815 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST ABOVE 25 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS IN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.
UNTIL THEN...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN REDEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL
PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS...
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 75 MPH AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE STATE ALL THE WAY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL PARTS
OF THE STATE. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME WILL BE FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
EVENING...BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
740 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOGG SPRINGS            34.32N 94.42W
09/21/2006                   POLK               AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TIN OFF CHICKEN HOUSE.

&&

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