Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, September 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
306 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. TORNADO WATCHES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA
UNTIL 00Z. IT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S.

AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N MS AS WELL. A LARGE SUPERCELL OVER
FULTON...IZARD...AND SHARP COUNTIES IN AR HAS TURNED RIGHT AND
APPEARS TO BE HEADED FOR NE AR. THIS STORM HAS THE BEST SHORT TERM
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY IN NE MS WILL
BE WATCHED FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE CELLS INTERACT WITH A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT REGION. MLCAPES ARE NOT AS LARGE IN THIS AREA
(LESS THATN 2000 J/KG) AND WE EXPECT THIS THREAT TO DIMINISH
AROUND 00Z AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH. FURTHER WEST...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS IN THE PRESENCE OF 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPES. THE ONE CAVEAT
CONTINUES TO BE THE LACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO ACT AS A
FORCING MECHANISM. ANY STORMS THAT CAN MATERIALIZE WILL HAVE A
GOOD OPPORTUNITY OF BECOMING SEVERE AND POSSIBLY TORNADIC AS THEY
QUICKLY MOVE NE TOWARDS THE MIDSOUTH. 0-1KM SRH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 250-300 M2/S2 AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGHTENS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT. WE WILL RESTATE THE THREAT IS STILL CONDITIONAL
BASED ON INSTABILITY BEING ENOUGH OF A LIFTING MECHANISM TO
DEVELOP STORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN ON THE WV LOOP
THAT WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. HAVING SAID THAT...WILL
LEAVE MODERATE RISK AS IS GIVEN THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

BY TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE OVER COLORADO WILL EJECT EAST...SERVING
TO MOVE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EAST AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL
AFFECT THE REGION MAINLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORORW NIGHT.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND
A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET ALL SUGGEST ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SHEAR PROFILES BECOMES MORE UNIDERICTIONAL
TOMORROW...SUGGESTING THE THREAT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN
PRECIPITBALE WATER VALUES OF NEAR 2 INCHES. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

&&

.LONGER TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
VERY INTERESTING PATTERN FOR SEPTEMBER.  UPPER FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MORE LIKE LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER WITH THE JET
DIPPING WELL INTO THE SOUTHERN US.  LOOKING AT BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE ON SUNDAY
IS TIMING THE COLD FRONT.  NGM IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
AND ETA PUSHING THE FRONT TO THE ALABAMA BORDER EARLY IN THE DAY.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE DAY FAIRLY COOL AND DRIER BY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE IS INCLUDING TEMPS SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...GIVEN THE THICKNESS VALUES AND AIRMASS WITH STAY CLOSE
OR A SHADE BELOW.

ANOTHER...ALMOST ARCTIC LOOKING SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE CENTRAL US ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH SINCE THERE
APPEARS NO TIME FOR TEMP/MOISTURE RECOVERY.  THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS VERY COOL.  AGAIN WILL SIDE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  86  61  74 /  60  70  80  30
MKL  72  84  62  74 /  50  70  80  40
JBR  71  83  59  72 /  70  80  60  30
TUP  72  87  70  76 /  40  50  80  60

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM - JFB
LONG TERM - JEB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-231100-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
314 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE MODERATE
RISK AREA IS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY
TENNESSEE TO SOMERVILLE TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI. THE
CITIES OF MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO ARE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE REMAINDER OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE CITIES OF JACKSON AND
TUPELO ARE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAIN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
MID-SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A TURNING AND STRONG WIND PROFILE WILL
EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY TORNADOES COULD BE
STRONG AND LONG-LIVED. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. A SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SQUALL
LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. IN
ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AND LIKELY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

JFB