Damaging Wind in Arkansas, May 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ABOUND OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING
ALONG THE RED RIVER NORTH OF PRX AND ANOTHER BETWEEN TPL AND PSN.
ON THE SURFACE A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS SE OK INTO LOW
PRESSURE OVER N CENTRAL TX. WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUED
TO FEED INTO THE AREA AND WILL BE COMBINING WITH THE UPPER

DISTURBANCES AND WEAKENING CAP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THE GOOD
AVAILABILITY OF GULF MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

CHANGED WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  65  80  63 /  40  60  50  70
MLU  86  66  80  63 /  30  70  60  50
DEQ  81  61  75  61 /  60  60  60  70
TXK  83  63  74  60 /  40  60  50  70
ELD  85  63  77  60 /  40  80  60  60
TYR  84  65  78  63 /  70  60  60  60
GGG  84  65  77  63 /  60  60  60  60
LFK  86  66  86  66 /  60  50  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A DE
QUEEN ARKANSAS TO HEMPHILL TEXAS LINE.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
RISKS WILL BE HAIL...GREATER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES AN HOUR.

A DISTURBANCE...IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN A VERY WARM...
MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO
THIS WEEKEND...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER RISKS.

A FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN THE
INTERSTATE 30 TO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR INTO SATURDAY.  AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH BOUNDARIES IN A WARM...
MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL...
WITH A FRONT REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME LOCATION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WHILE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...THE RAINFALL
COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS
AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS COULD OCCUR.

THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
103 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     HAIL             IDABEL                  33.90N 94.82W
05/04/2006  E0.88 INCH       MCCURTAIN          OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

1250 PM     HAIL             IDABEL                  33.90N 94.82W
05/04/2006  E0.88 INCH       MCCURTAIN          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
133 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             TOM                     33.73N 94.57W
05/04/2006  E1.00 INCH       MCCURTAIN          OK   PUBLIC

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
220 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             FOREMAN                 33.72N 94.40W
05/04/2006  E1.00 INCH       LITTLE RIVER       AR   PUBLIC

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FOREMAN                 33.72N 94.40W
05/04/2006                   LITTLE RIVER       AR   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN NEAR FOREMAN.

0200 PM     HAIL             ASHDOWN                 33.67N 94.13W
05/04/2006  E0.88 INCH       LITTLE RIVER       AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

17