Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, May 4 to 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL SPREAD
E/SE TOWARDS THE AUS AREA BY 03Z. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONT THRU
06Z. SOME TSRA COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUST OF
50 KTS OR GREATER. AFTER 06Z MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AND WILL SPREAD
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE BY 11Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SE 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 446 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006)

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES
AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO VAL VERDE COUNTY. ALSO
INCREASED QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN PLACE.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU MAY 4 2006)

DISCUSSION...AREA MORE CAPPED OFF THUS AFTERNOON THUS CLOUDS HUNG
IN A LITTLE LONGER AND WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT POSSIBLY
PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AREA IS REALLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES ABOVE 3000 SO ANY LIFT AFTER LOWEST LAYERS ARE MIXED
THIS EVENING ALONG A FOCUSING BOUNDARY COULD SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS..
A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE. MORE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT AS IMPULSES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE EJECTED
INTO A DIFLUENT RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRLAT TEXAS WITH SOME
STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS.
A BREAK IN THE ACTION OCCURS SUNDAY AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINS LATE MONDAY WHEN
AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST WHILE
EJECTING IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD MIDWEEK.

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH A SIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.