Hail in Arkansas, May 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
INCREASING AREALLY. WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE STATE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THER WILL BE
A LULL THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 959 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006/

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED. WILL TWEAK A FEW GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TREND AND REMOVE
THE MORNING WORDING...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006/

AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AS EXPECTED BUT SOME 2500 FOOT CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO THE SOUTH SO STILL INDICATED A CHANCE OF 2500
FOOT CEILINGS AT KLIT...KHOT...AND KPBF THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG
WITH TEMPORARY 5 MILE VISIBILITY IN FOG. OTHERWISE...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CIRRUS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING WITH CU AROUND 3000
FEET DEVELOPING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MCS AND HAVE PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z AT KLIT...
KHOT AND KPBF. AN MCS OR TWO MAY AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE
PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 341 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. TWO PRESSING ISSUES TO
CONTEND WITH...TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER CHANCES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING MCS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. REMNANTS OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS...THOUGH
IT/S BARELY DISTINGUISHABLE LOOKING AT SURFACE OBS.

OVER ALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HASN/T CHANGED MUCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT...WITH A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. FLAT/ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA...AND THESE WILL INTERACT
WITH ANY BOUNDARIES AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE IN
THOSE AREAS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
OLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM MCS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/
NORTHEAST KANSAS.

AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY...STALLING OUT INVOF CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

BY FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL GAIN SOME MOMENTUM...AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY THANKS TO AN APPROACHING RIDGE. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE.
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT OVER THE AREA...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH.

NOW TO TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE DIFFERS TO VARYING DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. MET NUMBERS SEEM TO BE MORE REALISTIC IN THE FIRST
PERIOD...TAKING MORE CLOUD COVER INTO ACCOUNT. MAV/MET/FWC AGREE
WELL IN THE SECOND PERIOD. HOWEVER...FOR THE THIRD AND FOURTH
PERIOD...GUIDANCE DIFFERS BY AS MUCH AS 7-10 DEGREES. TENDED TO
GRAVITATE TOWARD COOLER NUMBERS IN THOSE PERIODS...TAKING ALL THE
CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARIES INTO
CONSIDERATION. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST.

FINALLY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CHANCES...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
HIGH CAPE VALUES /2-3000 J/KG/ AND DECENT LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN
DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW AND
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE GREATEST
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO THREE INCHES...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE FRONT.

ATTM...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
ONLY. WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE TEXT
FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH MINS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME RECORDS FOR THE
DATE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY
AND LEFT THAT IN THE FORECAST. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
KEPT SOME MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS SHOWS A FRONT IN THE AREA AND IS TRYING TO FORECAST AN MCS OR
TWO BUT CANNOT TRUST THAT SETUP AND TIMING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

57/29

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR A
WEAKENING WARM FRONT IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE REMNANTS OF AN
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...WHICH COULD SET UP IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND COULD MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE ON
THURSDAY WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS OR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. PRESENT INDICATIONS FAVOR THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE GENERAL TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A
WEAKENING TREND LATE AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY AND LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY. LITTLE OR NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
SOME AREAS.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

51