Flash Flooding in Arkansas, May 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ONCE AGAIN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS SOUTHERN
COUNTERPART. NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE ITS RECENT TREND OF
CARVING OUT UPPER TROFS AND MOVING THEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. SOUTHERN STREAM DOES DEVELOP A TROF OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHICH TRIES TO CLOSE OFF IN THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NUMEROUS WEAK
WAVES KICKING OUT OF THIS FEATURE AND MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW
WHICH REMAINS GENERALLY QUASI ZONAL OVER THE AREA. AS TO BE EXPECTED
...THERE ARE NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
ADVERTISED BY ALL SHORT TERM MODELS...WILL GO WITH CONTINUE TO GO
WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
OVERDONE ONCE AGAIN AND WILL GO MORE IN LINE WITH QPF OUTPUT FROM
THE NAM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED OUT WITH UPPER
60 DEGREE DEW POINTS COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
NEXT IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS PARADE OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AS WAVE WILL BE HELPED OUT BY WHATS
LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH AND ANY ONE OF SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE PAST FEW NIGHTS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
SOME SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALSO WELL TO THE NORTH WITH COLD
FRONT SLICING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. NEXT WAVE MORE DISCRETE IN NATURE
BUT STILL SEEN OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON WV IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.
TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT PIECES OF ENERGY WITH AND
UPPER FLOW REMAINING ZONAL IN NATURE....WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES
OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
OVERNIGHT MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE
LOCATED ALONG THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. BOUNDARY STALLS/SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTH DURING THE DAY.
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE.

BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACTUALLY BE THURSDAY WITH
APPROACHING FRONT PROVIDING GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -6 C AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG. ONCE AGAIN
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS CERTAINLY CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCHES AND LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. TRAINING CELLS COULD
EASILY DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN.

FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE ABUNDANT OVER THE AREA...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS ALL OVER
THE PLACE BUT COOLER READINGS SEEM TO MAKE MORE SENSE WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL BE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS WELL. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  81  57  73 /  60  60  60  40
HARRISON AR       61  72  50  69 /  70  80  80  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  81  56  73 /  50  60  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     66  84  60  75 /  50  50  50  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  61  73  50  69 /  70  80  80  40
MONTICELLO AR     67  84  63  77 /  40  40  50  50
SEARCY AR         65  81  55  73 /  60  70  60  40
MOUNT IDA AR      66  82  54  71 /  50  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  71  52  69 /  60  70  60  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR A
WEAKENING WARM FRONT IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE REMNANTS OF AN
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...WHICH COULD SET UP IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND COULD MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE ON
THURSDAY WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS OR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. PRESENT INDICATIONS FAVOR THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE GENERAL TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A
WEAKENING TREND LATE AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY AND LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY. LITTLE OR NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
SOME AREAS.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HAIL             BRINKLEY                34.88N 91.19W
05/03/2006  M1.00 INCH       MONROE             AR   PUBLIC

&&

51