Damaging Wind in Arkansas, March 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
410 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST FAST AS
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6
PM TONIGHT. UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE
WEEK END.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LAST IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SYSTEMS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE FA ON
MON. HAVE CONTD WITH SCTD POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF ASSOCD CDFNT ATTM
AS TIMING ISSUES STILL A CONCERN. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WL BLD
INTO AR FOR TUE AND WED. THE HIGH WL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY LATE WED
AND WED NGT. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVR THE PLAINS
STATES...ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING TEMP FCST THRU THE PD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  44  70  57 /  90  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       58  39  66  54 /  90  20  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  44  72  58 /  90  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     71  47  72  59 /  90  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  39  66  54 /  90  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  48  72  59 /  90  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         69  43  68  56 /  90  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      68  44  72  57 /  90  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  42  68  55 /  90  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...32 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1055 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1055 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MUCH
OF ARKANSAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

TOWARD MORNING...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK INTO
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA WILL EVOLVE INTO A LINE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
THROUGH ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.

THE LINE OF STORMS MAY BULGE FORWARD IN PLACES...WITH SEVERAL BOWING
SEGMENTS LIKELY. WINDS TEND TO POOL AND ROTATE ON THE ENDS OF EACH
SEGMENT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES OFTEN SPAWNED. ALSO...SHOULD THERE
BE ANY STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE...THEY HAVE A TENDENCY TO ROTATE AND
COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL EXIT THE STATE TO
THE EAST WITH THE FRONT SOON TO FOLLOW. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. THIS WILL MOVE OVER WARMER CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND...WITH
A FEW MORE STORMS POPPING UP. THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL.

THIS FIRST WAVE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...STORM SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS OCCASIONALLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH SYSTEM.
TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AT LEAST IN WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IN THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE
URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER RULES AND MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
THERE IS A CONCERN OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WHILE MOST PEOPLE WILL BE ASLEEP.
THIS WILL AFFECT WESTERN ARKANSAS THE MOST TONIGHT. USE OF NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR TELEVISIONS WITH ALERT FEATURES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
COULD COME IN HANDY IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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