Damaging Wind in Arkansas, March 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY MUCH RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THERE WAS A SEVERE STORM IN
SCOTT...MONTGOMERY AND YELL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...STORMS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY TAME.

GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...REDUCED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT A LOT OF NIGHTTIME CONVECTION...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MORE PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHEN MAIN STORM SYSTEM/FRONT
ARRIVE.

THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY...WITH
MAIN SHOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY
NOTED...WITH LINE OF STORMS/WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. TORNADOES POSSIBLE
IN ANY DISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE...OR IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ALONG THE LINE. (46)
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH ALONG A
WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH. CAPPING HAS
PRETTY MUCH PREVENTED MUCH ELSE FROM DEVELOPING SO FAR. MAIN
ACTIVITY MAY WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND COLD FRONT AND DRY LINES SLOWLY APPROACH THE
AREA. LOWERED POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORY BUT KEPT
HIGH POPS GOING FOR LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. KEPT SEVERE WORDING GOING FOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHEAR WILL BE
INCREASING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT AS TEMPS FALL LITTLE
AND DEW POINTS MAY CONTINUE TO EDGE UP A LITTLE. MAY SEE A SQUALL
LINE MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD 12Z ALTHOUGH NEW MODELS INIDCATE
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE SOME DISCRETE
CELLS COULD DEVELOP AND THOSE COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN ACTION
SHOULD STILL BE THURSDAY MORNING POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. BIGGEST SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND DYNAMICS SUPPORT GUSTS
OVER 70 MPH IN PLACES. SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS A
FEW TORNADOES. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE REMAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS. WENT WITH 90 POPS FOR THE
MORNING IN ALL AREAS THEN DROPPED TO CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
KEPT SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE SEVERE WORDING IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MORNING AND CONTINUED
SEVERE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...CENTRAL AND EAST. GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO
THE STRONG WIND DYNAMICS ALOFT AND EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS. CONTINUED SMALL POPS IN THE NORTH
FOR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE PAST THE
AREA. A DRY PERIOD SHOULD FOLLOW LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT RETURN FLOW COMES BACK QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LEFT
POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 60S TONIGHT THEN MAXES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING A LOT ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND HOW MUCH CLEARING COULD OCCUR AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN. WENT WITH
MAXES IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. DRIER
AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN APRIL-LIKE TEMPS SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE AFTER
THAT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND MAXES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MOVES NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY THEN
STALLS FOR AWHILE BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING ON ALL THIS
SO EXTENDED FORECAST KEPT ABOUT THE SAME. GFS HINTS AT A DAILY
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SO
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WAY TO GO RIGHT NOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN TOWARD LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPS AND LEFT THAT FORECAST AS IS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1055 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1055 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MUCH
OF ARKANSAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

TOWARD MORNING...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK INTO
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA WILL EVOLVE INTO A LINE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
THROUGH ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.

THE LINE OF STORMS MAY BULGE FORWARD IN PLACES...WITH SEVERAL BOWING
SEGMENTS LIKELY. WINDS TEND TO POOL AND ROTATE ON THE ENDS OF EACH
SEGMENT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES OFTEN SPAWNED. ALSO...SHOULD THERE
BE ANY STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE...THEY HAVE A TENDENCY TO ROTATE AND
COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL EXIT THE STATE TO
THE EAST WITH THE FRONT SOON TO FOLLOW. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. THIS WILL MOVE OVER WARMER CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND...WITH
A FEW MORE STORMS POPPING UP. THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL.

THIS FIRST WAVE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...STORM SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS OCCASIONALLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH SYSTEM.
TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AT LEAST IN WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IN THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE
URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER RULES AND MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
THERE IS A CONCERN OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WHILE MOST PEOPLE WILL BE ASLEEP.
THIS WILL AFFECT WESTERN ARKANSAS THE MOST TONIGHT. USE OF NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR TELEVISIONS WITH ALERT FEATURES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
COULD COME IN HANDY IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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