Damaging Wind in Arkansas, June 23, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN AR SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS AFTER THAT. RAINS PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BR AROUND SUNRISE. NAM IS GIVING STRONG
INDICATIONS OF REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN AR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN...SO INCLUDED SOME TSTMS FOR LATER
TONIGHT AT KPBF.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY WEATHER WILL BE IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING AND AREAS THAT WERE
ABLE TO HEAT UP TODAY. MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED STORMS PULSING TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS WELL BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE AIR IN
THESE AREAS HAS NOT RECOVERED FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY AND IS NOT AS
UNSTABLE. SHOWERS IN CENTRAL SECTIONS SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT
WITH SMALL POPS IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH
FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY COOLING IN MINS WILL BE SEEN IN THE NORTH WITH
MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. ON
SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTH SO PUT SMALL POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...DO NOT SEE TEMPS
REACHING MOS MAXES AND WENT A LITTLE LOWER IN MOST AREAS. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY AIDED BY A
WEAK SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM. DID NOT
PUT ANY MENTIONABLE POPS IN BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS IT
UNFOLDS. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
OVERALL FLOW PATTERNS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIODS. A AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
215 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
215 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM MENA...TO MONTICELLO. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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