Hail and Damaging Wind in Arkansas, August 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
241 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
KLZK RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH. THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WILL BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY CLOSE TO THE NEARLY WASHED OUT FRONT.
GREATEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE IS LOCATED IN THE WEST AND NEAR THE
LOUISIANA BORDER. WILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS HEATING IS LOST.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IN THE WEST FOR MONDAY
NEAR A WEAK TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE REALLY TAKES CONTROL ON TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND
SHOULD BE AROUND 100 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTH. FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
THUS...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  97  74  97 /  10  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       70  96  71  95 /  10  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  97  73  97 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  98  75  98 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  96  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     75  99  75  98 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         74  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  97  73  97 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  97  73  96 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TODAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF FAYETTEVILLE...LITTLE ROCK AND
STUTTGART.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ISOLATED...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOVE SLOWLY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS IN
THE FORECAST.

BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH WILL RELOCATE TO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A COLD FRONT RIDING THE FLOW INTO ARKANSAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.

IN THE TROPICS...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS MAY REGENERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN
SO...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF ARKANSAS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
423 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

ARZ041-052200-
MONTGOMERY-
423 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

AT 420 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ABOUT
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT IDA...DRIFTING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ODEN...
THE ROCKY SHOALS RECREATION AREA AND THE BLOWOUT MOUNTAIN SCENIC
AREA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. BOATERS AND
CAMPERS IN THE AREA SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE.

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