Damaging Wind in Arkansas, August 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
302 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAPS SHOW A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 40 IN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOSER TO HOME...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SCATTERING OF
CUMULI...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A FEW EVENING STORMS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE FRONT AS IT INTERACTS WITH A UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. IN FACT...100MB MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF
2000 JOULES/KG IN A FEW SPOTS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. IN
GENERAL...I EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED COVERAGE FROM ANY
CONVECTION. AFTER SUNSET...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT OVER
THE FOUR STATE REGION.

THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEM THIS WEEKEND DEALS WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON.  AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ARE USHERED INTO OUR AREA.
WITH THE ADDED FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW...
IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

OUT OF ALL OF THIS...I PLAN ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR THE WEEKEND.  I WILL TREND ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARISHES/...THEN
REMAIN A LITTLE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER /RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE/ FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.  THE GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE OVER OUR NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
SEEN AGAIN MONDAY.  I FEEL THAT THE GREATEST COVERAGE EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES SHOULD THEN WANE SOMEWHAT AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES.  BY WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.  THE BIG STORY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK COULD VERY WELL BE
THE HEAT...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST TO OUR WEST.

THEN THERES A TROPICAL SYSTEM KNOWN AS CHRIS.  LATEST TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES THAT HE SHOULD
COME ASHORE AS A TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER WEDNESDAY.  THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ONLY EFFECT CHRIS MIGHT HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE
TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TUESDAY.  OF COURSE...
THAT ASSUMES HE IS STILL ALIVE AFTER MOVING ACROSS CUBA.

OUTSIDE OF GOOD OLD CHRIS POTENTIALLY PROVIDING HEADACHES TO AREA
FORECASTERS...IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER OF 2006 WEEK ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  97  75  96 /  10  20  40  40
MLU  73  98  74  95 /  10  30  50  30
DEQ  73  98  72  97 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  76  98  74  98 /  20  20  30  30
ELD  72  98  72  97 /  20  20  30  30
TYR  75  99  75  95 /  10  20  40  20
GGG  74  98  74  95 /  10  20  40  20
LFK  73  95  74  93 /  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC FORECASTER...BUTTS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER...PARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
245 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF AN
IDABEL TO EL DORADO LINE.  THE MAIN RISKS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES AN HOUR AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BUTTS