Hail in Arkansas, August 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
342 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS
LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ADEQUATE SURFACE MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS WELL. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AND CONFINE THE AREA TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
COOL MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT. MAXES IN THE 90S WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY DURING THE
EXTENDED TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE AREA RETROGRADES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHILE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT ARKANSAS INTO A NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
SRN MO/NRN AR BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE MOVING THE
FRONT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS THEY HAVE WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS...BUT WITH A PROBABLE NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THE SFC FRONT
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE QUICKLY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR TSTMS SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       68  93  67  95 /  30  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  96  73  96 /  30  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     73  96  73  97 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  93  69  94 /  30  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  98  74  98 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         71  95  72  96 /  30  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      75  96  72  96 /  30  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  94  70  96 /  30  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS..

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTION OF THE STATE. IT WILL CONTINUE TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A
VERY SMALL CHANCE OF HAVING A FEW STORMS THAT PRODUCE HAIL.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN SOME
AREAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE REGION. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN
MOST AREAS.

DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL HAVE MOVED FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT CHRIS
WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF ARKANSAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
242 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 WNW BENTON            34.61N 92.71W
08/04/2006                   SALINE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 5 NEAR THE ALUM FORK BRIDGE.

&&

106

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED LOCATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
242 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG    11 WNW BENTON            34.61N 92.71W
08/04/2006                   SALINE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 5 NEAR THE ALUM FORK BRIDGE.

&&

106

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
342 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             2 N HUNT                35.56N 93.67W
08/04/2006  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR THE COMMUNITYOF BATSON NORTH OF
            HUNT.

&&

106