Hail in Arkansas, August 15, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED FROM SOUTH OF MONTICELLO TO BETWEEN MENA AND
TEXARKANA. THE FRONT...ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNING/S STORMS
WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
TONIGHT...GIVEN AMOUNT OF WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLING AIR
ALOFT. WIND WOULD AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANY STRONG STORMS
OCCUR.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STALLING OR
WASHING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

GFS MOS TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE WARMING THINGS A BIT TOO QUICKLY...
SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WENT
CLOSER TO THE FWC NUMBERS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE MET
NUMBERS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS A BIT TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
A NWLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE
TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE STATE DURING THE EXTENDED TERM.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT OF THE WAY THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PROBABLY DRIFT
INTO THE VICINITY OF NRN AR/SRN MO ON SUNDAY. FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL OUT SOMEWHERE...MY BEST GUESS IS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE ON MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       64  89  67  92 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  95  72  96 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  93  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  92  66  92 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  96  73  98 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         68  94  68  94 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  98  68  97 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  91  68  94 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE IN ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOMEWHAT TODAY. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID IN
MOST AREAS AND THE HEAT INDEX COULD APPROACH 105 IN SOME AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A HEAT ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN
ISSUED FOR TODAY...PEOPLE PLANNING ON SPENDING CONSIDERABLE
TIME OUTDOORS TODAY WILL STILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AGAINST
TOO MUCH EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALSO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY...BUT PEOPLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS
AGAINST TOO MUCH EXPOSURE TO THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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