Damaging Wind in Arkansas, August 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FRONT ALREADY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF
MENA...CONWAY AND NEWPORT. PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.

SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN IN AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. WITH A LOT OF HEAT AT THE SURFACE TO
ENHANCE DOWNBURSTS...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

ON TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET IN THE MORNING AFTER OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION SETTLES DOWN. MODELS SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS REVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE CLOSE TO
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANY STORMS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND
THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT DURING THE
SHORT TERM...BUT WOULD STILL CALL IT HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN COOLING WILL BE AT NIGHT WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE.

BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REASSERT
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DRY/WARMER WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. (46)
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE EARLY PART
OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...THIS WILL KEEP A FRONT OUT IN THE PLAINS
FROM MAKING ANY HEADWAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY...RIDGE MAY CONTRACT TOWARD THE WEST...ALLOWING THIS WEAK
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.
THUS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL END THE LONG TERM. KEPT SMALL POPS
IN THE FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. (57)
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  93  70  92 /  30  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       67  87  65  89 /  40  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  95  71  94 /  20  40  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  95  70  94 /  20  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  87  66  87 /  40  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  97  71  95 /  20  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         73  91  68  90 /  30  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  96  72  95 /  30  40  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  93  70  92 /  30  30  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ042-
ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-
ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
355 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF ARKANSAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FALLSVILLE TO BEE BRANCH TO NEWPORT. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRODUCING HEAT STRESS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE REACHING 105 DEGREES OR MORE...SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

38/22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
458 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WIDEMAN                 36.19N 92.01W
08/14/2006                   IZARD              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0405 PM     HAIL             MELBOURNE               36.06N 91.90W
08/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       IZARD              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0416 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE SAINT JOE          36.00N 92.76W
08/14/2006                   SEARCY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHALL                35.91N 92.64W
08/14/2006                   SEARCY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. TREE FELL ON A MOBILE HOME.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BULL SHOALS             36.38N 92.59W
08/14/2006                   MARION             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
502 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             LAKEVIEW                36.37N 92.55W
08/14/2006  E0.75 INCH       BAXTER             AR   PUBLIC

&&

22