Damaging Wind in Arkansas, August 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS WK FNTL BNDRY HAS LIFTED NWD INTO CNTRL AR THIS AFTN BASED
ON SFC DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE MID 70S VCNTY OF THE FNT. HAVE SEEN
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FORM THIS AFTN OVR MAINLY THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA.
PLAN TO LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY DCRSG SOON AFT SUNSET.

PRIMARY FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE NEXT CDFNT PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE FA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH SWD PROGRESS OF
THE BNDRY THE LAST FEW DAYS...BRINGING IT INTO NWRN AR MON MRNG AND
APCHG CNTRL SECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. STILL CONCERNED THAT THE BNDRY
MAY NOT MAKE AS STEADY OF A SWD PROGRESSION AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDC. HAVE CONTD CURRENT TRENDS WITH SCTD POPS FOR NWRN PARTS OF THE
FA BY MON AFTN...WITH LESSER CHCS FURTHER SWWD. STUCK WITH CHC POPS
MOST AREAS MON NGT. KEPT LOW CHC POPS GOING MOST AREAS ON TUE IN
CASE BNDRY DECIDES TO SLOW DOWN. DIMINISHING RAIN CHCS TUE NGT FM
THE NW AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND FROPA...WITH DRY CONDS WED.

TEMPS WL BE A TOUGH CALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF
FNT AND RESULTANT CLOUDS/PRECIP COVERAGE. WARMEST TEMPS MON WL BE
OVR CNTRL AND SRN AR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT
INDICES APCH CRITICAL 105 DEGREE MARK MON AFTN OVR PARTS OF E-CNTRL
AND SRN AR. WL EXPAND CURRENT HEAT ADVY MON A LTL FURTHER NWD BASED
ON FCST HEAT INDEX VALUES.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD OVER ARKANSAS WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS WESTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH DOES SHOW SIGNS OF MOVING SOMEWHAT SOUTH FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO TRAVERSE NORTH ARKANSAS. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS WELL. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ053-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ047-ARZ053-
ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-
ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
435 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
435 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AS A RESULT OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY COMBINING TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRODUCING HEAT STRESS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE REACHING 105 DEGREES OR MORE
...SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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