Damaging Wind in Arkansas, April 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
STORM SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. LOTS OF WARMTH/MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO POP UP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY.

ALREADY HAVE A TORNADO WATCH IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL
8 PM THIS EVENING.

WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.

HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPED TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE WEST...
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR
AREAS WEST OF MOUNTAIN HOME...RUSSELLVILLE AND MURFREESBORO...
WHERE BURNING NOT ADVISED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH
PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH GONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER/DRIER AIR AND QUIET CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE SHORT
TERM. (46)
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A RATHER LARGE RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE START. IT WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY HOURS WED AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
TO BRING MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR US. COLD FRONT NEVER MAKES IT
ACROSS OUR AREA...SO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS. (32)
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  63  40  69 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       43  58  34  68 /  30   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    51  66  40  70 /  30   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     53  64  41  70 /  40  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  58  33  67 /  30   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  64  42  71 /  50  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         51  61  38  68 /  40  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      48  65  39  70 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  63  35  69 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
225 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
225 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WAS PLENTY OF WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE. AS OF 2 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
GENERALLY SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK...WITH SEVERE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...STORMS WERE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE IN AREAS EAST OF HARDY...LITTLE ROCK AND TEXARKANA. THE
RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE IN AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

IN THE WEST...HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE DROPPED TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS...THE FIRE DANGER HAS INCREASED. PEOPLE ARE URGED
NOT TO BURN THIS AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES. MONITOR LATER BULLETINS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE PREPARED TO ACT
IF SEVERE STORMS APPROACH.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

46