Flash Flooding in Arkansas, April 29, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1115 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

.UPDATE...
WILL LOWER THE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
MORNING WHERE SOME CLEARING IS TAKING PLATE ATTM BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP HIGH POPS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND WITH WAA AT THE LOWER LEVELS
EXPECT INCREASING LAPSE RATE WHICH WILL IN TURN INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.(38)
&&

.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
MUCH OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006/

AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN...BUT WILL
IMPACT ALL AREAS BY LATER ON IN THE MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO 24 KNOTS EXPECTED AFTER
15Z. RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...AS STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IT WILL THEN PHASE
WITH A TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
SLOWLY MOVED INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER TROF PULLS
INTO THE PLAINS. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE COVERED BY RAIN BY SOMETIME
TODAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. PUT IN 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY. LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST A LITTLE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER MOTION OF THE RAIN AREA INTO THE CWA THEN
BEGIN DECREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION SO DO NOT LOOK FOR A BIG OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE PROXIMITY OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND RATHER STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND RESULTING SHEAR MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL NOT PLAY UP SEVERE IN
THE ZONES. THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PAST THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE MAIN PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BUT WITH THE TROF AXIS TO THE WEST...STILL WILL HAVE TO BE WARY OF
ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
GOING. WITH LESS OVERALL MOISTURE...CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THUS IF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY
BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH THE TROF AXIS TO THE
WEST. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 RANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A SQUALL LINE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND COULD BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY
.AND CONTINUED FORECAST OF LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  55  77  55 / 100  60  30  40
HARRISON AR       65  51  71  52 / 100  60  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  55  78  55 / 100  50  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     71  56  79  55 / 100  60  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  52  71  52 / 100  60  40  40
MONTICELLO AR     73  57  80  56 / 100  70  20  30
SEARCY AR         69  55  75  54 / 100  70  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      70  55  77  55 / 100  50  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  54  75  54 / 100  60  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.
&&

38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1028 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1028 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ARKANSAS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE STATE
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER ARE LOW.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 3/4 INCH TO 2
INCHES.

A NEW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LINE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...AND SHOULD EXIT
EASTERN ARKANSAS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT... ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN ARKANSAS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON MONDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND MAY CONTINUE ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

28