Damaging Wind in Arkansas, April 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
805 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AFTERNOON MCS HAVE DISSIPATED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOWS UP TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 245. THUS HAVE CLEARED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245 FOR THIS
CWA. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO FIT OBSERVED DATA. AIR
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WAS WORKED OVER BY MCS AND HAS
SHOWN LITTLE RECOVERY SO FAR. MAY SEE SOME RECOVERY OF TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS THIS EVENING BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT. ALSO LOWERED POPS FOR
THIS EVENING BUT GRADUALLY BROUGHT POPS UP TO EARLIER FORECAST
VALUES FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. NOT TOO SURE ABOUT SEVERE THREAT WITH
LATER ACTIVITY AS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE LIMITED
AND MODELS ALSO SHOWED LESS INSTABILITY IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
CERTAINLY COULD HAVE SOME SEVERE STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST MOVES IN BUT LOOKS LIKE THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH TO
DROP SEVERE WORDING FROM ZONES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN HWO.
UPDATE WILL BE SENT TO DROP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND WITH THE
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS AND POPS.
&&
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.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

.SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DATA FROM LOCAL RADARS...AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INIDCATE THE PROGRESSION OF AN MCS...NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
WEAKENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...AS A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ACCELERATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...PER FORECAST ISENTROPIC FIELDS.

COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY.  FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE 8 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM....THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE WITH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH IN THE FINER
DETAILS. PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKY IN NATURE WITH WEAKENING
UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD AND SEMI PERMANENT NORTHEAST CONUS TROFFING. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THEY WERE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF BLENDING
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS THIS TIME AROUND.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING FRIDAY. OVERALL
FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND WHILE FORMING JUST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW...WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP RELOADING THE NORTHEAST CONUS
TROF. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
FRIDAY RESULT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING OUT BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS NUMEROUS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY
AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN DAY SEVEN.

AREA IS IN NORTHWEST FLOW DURING PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT DOES FLATTEN OUT
SOMEWHAT LATE. NOT SEEING ANY REAL WARM UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD OR EVEN
A TAD BELOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  79  53  69 /  70  80  30   0
HARRISON AR       62  66  44  65 /  50  50  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  74  50  69 /  70  70  20   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  81  54  70 /  80  80  40   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  69  45  65 /  50  50  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     67  83  56  71 /  90  80  50   0
SEARCY AR         67  79  51  68 /  70  70  20   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  72  49  69 /  70  60  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  74  50  68 /  70  60  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
827 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
827 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MENA TO LITTLE ROCK TO AUGUSTA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AIR IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS HAS STABILIZED FROM THE
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE AIR MAY DESTABILIZE SOME TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME LATER
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY GENERALLY TO THE
EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN TO LITTLE ROCK TO NEWPORT.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
COULD BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT AND IN ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
746 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             5 NW PEEL               36.48N 92.83W
04/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       MARION             AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            OCCURRED IN THE LAZY ACRES COMMUNITY. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
            STILL ON GROUND 30 MINUTES AFTER STORM PASSED. HOUSES AND
            BOAT DOCKS DAMAGED BY WIND AND HAIL. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
            SHINGLES OFF ROOFS. GARAGE UNDER CONSTRUCTION BLOWN DOWN.
            LIMB WENT THROUGH ROOF OF HOUSE. POWER OUT. REPORTS FROM
            TANEY COUNTY MO SHERIFFS OFFICE AND LAZY ACRES FIRE
            CHIEF.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
804 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SW HARRISON           36.15N 93.23W
04/24/2006                   BOONE              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 HOUSES WITH WINDOWS KNOCKED OUT BY HAIL...SIZE UNKNOWN.
            ROOF OF HOUSE TRAILER DAMAGED. TREES AND LIMBS DOWN MANY
            PLACES IN BOONE COUNTY.

0336 PM     HAIL             2 NE BULL SHOALS        36.40N 92.56W
04/24/2006  E1.50 INCH       MARION             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STRONG WINDS ALSO. WINDOW KNOCKED OUT OF HOUSE.

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIARCLIFF              36.28N 92.29W
04/24/2006                   BAXTER             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** PERSON INJURED BY GLASS FROM WINDOW THAT
            WAS BLOWN IN. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
            BAXTER COUNTY. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS. SEVERAL
            SMALL FIRES STARTED BY LIGHTNING AROUND GAMALIEL. BOAT
            SET ADRIFT ON LAKE NORFORK.

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW PEARSON            35.45N 92.18W
04/24/2006                   CLEBURNE           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FEW TREES DOWN AROUND COVE CREEK.

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEBER SPRINGS           35.50N 92.04W
04/24/2006                   CLEBURNE           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
810 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND GST     OIL TROUGH              35.63N 91.46W
04/24/2006  M59 MPH          INDEPENDENCE       AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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