Hail in Arkansas, April 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL NOW BUT A COLD FRONT IS IN THE VICINITY
AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE NORTH.(38)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1010 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY FROM A
DEQUEEN TO MOUNT IDA TO CONWAY TO SALEM LINE AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. NOT AN APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASSES ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND.
MCS THAT ROLLED THROUGH THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO DECAY WITH
PRECIPITATION NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH A BREAK OR TWO IN THE
OVERCAST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TRIM POPS BACK ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE FRONT WILL WORK WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE MCS TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER. WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND A FEW
DISCRETE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE LURKING ABOUT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY TEMPS IN LIGHT OF ALL THE
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH A
WIND SHIFT AT THE OFFICE...WE ARE STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING FRONTS. THE GFS IS A BIT FAST
AT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...SO KEPT POPS LONGER IN
THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GIVE A PUSH TO THE SURFACE FEATURES
SO THAT CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING.
RIDGE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY AIR...SO FORECAST WILL
BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE
SLIDES EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL START OUT WITH A STEEP GRADIENT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...
THEN HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AS PRECIP ENDS AND CAA
TAKES PLACES WITH SURFACE RIDGE. HIGHS WILL WARM GRADUALLY EACH DAY
WHILE KEEPING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
FOR BULK OF LONG TERM...DATA INDICATING LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS AND AT/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. APPEARS THAT LOW WILL
FINALLY EXIT THE REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS BREAKING UP AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1035 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1035 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE OF
STORMS ENDING. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN EXIT THE REGION...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH A NEW STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING IN ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

38