Hail in Arkansas, April 20, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE
WEAKER THAN ITS GFS COUNTERPART BUT STRONGER SOLUTION LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC WHEN FEATURES ARE GLEANED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THAT
BEING SAID...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A GFS SOLUTION THIS MORNING. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO GO MORE IN LINE WITH NAM QPF OUTPUT AS GFS
APPEARS TO SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ONCE AGAIN.

BLOCKY PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOSED OFF UPPER
LOWS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ENTIRE
PATTERN JUST LUMBERS ALONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER MIDWEST LOW
ONLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IN
SPITE OF A DEEP TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....
ROUGHLY ALONG A DEQUEEN TO ARKADELPHIA TO STAR CITY TO GILLETTE LINE.
WHILE FRONT MAY WAFFLE A BIT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT REALLY
SHOWS NO SIGN OF MOVING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND KICKS IT OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. WITH FRONT TO THE
SOUTH...ALL INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED IN NATURE AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SEVERAL STORMS DID REACH SEVERE LIMITS
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. REFER TO THE
LOCAL STORM REPORT PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

RADAR AND SATELLITE CONFIRM LARGE MCS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN TEXAS
IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUT OFF LOW TO
THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE MCS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WILL NEED TO BOOST POPS AREA WIDE
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY BE LIFTING NORTHWARD BY THAT TIME AND AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
IT BOUNDARY COULD SEE GOOD OVERRUNNING AND HAVE SOME CHANCE OF
SEEING HEAVY RAIN. THIS COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
SITUATION THAN SEVERE WEATHER WITH AN MCS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT CERTAINLY HAVE TO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH
SOME BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF ENHANCED SHEAR. MAIN CHANCES WOULD BE
HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT FRIDAY THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LARGE CYCLONEOVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
EAST AND IT WILL KEEP US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. BY THAT TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE FLATTENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AT ITSELF WEAKENS DURING ITS PUSH
EAST OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
GETS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW OPENS UP
QUICKLY AND SLIDES NORTHEAST BY 12 WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BE HOLDING ITS OWN OVER THE GULF COAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING... KEEPING THE GULF MOISTURE OUT OF OUR STATE. A
NEW FRONT WILL TRY TO GATHER STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE LOW SUPPORTING IT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST.
THIS WILL BRING RAINY WEATHER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.&
&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  62  72  52 /  60  80  80  10
HARRISON AR       74  55  70  49 /  40  70  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  62  72  53 /  70  70  70  10
PINE BLUFF AR     77  63  73  53 /  70  80  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  56  70  49 /  40  70  70  10
MONTICELLO AR     79  64  75  54 /  70  80  80  10
SEARCY AR         75  60  71  51 /  60  80  80  10
MOUNT IDA AR      76  61  72  53 /  60  70  70  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  58  71  51 /  50  70  70  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
230 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE UP
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED REPORT OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MENA TO CONWAY TO SEARCY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN BUT THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF DAMAGING
WINDS FROM SOME STORMS. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT MAY SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE DROUGHT IN PROGRESS SHOULD LESSEN
THE CHANCE OF FLOODING...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OUT OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. AS
IF OFTEN THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BECOME BETTER
DEFINED AS IT COMES CLOSER.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HAIL             3 E MORRILTON           35.16N 92.69W
04/20/2006  E1.00 INCH       CONWAY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0122 AM     HAIL             PERRYVILLE              35.01N 92.80W
04/20/2006  E1.75 INCH       PERRY              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0128 AM     HAIL             7 NW GREENBRIER         35.30N 92.47W
04/20/2006  M0.75 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   PUBLIC

0139 AM     HAIL             GREENBRIER              35.23N 92.38W
04/20/2006  E0.88 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0140 AM     HAIL             GUY                     35.32N 92.33W
04/20/2006  M1.00 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN GUY.

0141 AM     HAIL             CONWAY                  35.09N 92.45W
04/20/2006  E0.88 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0155 AM     HAIL             PANGBURN                35.43N 91.84W
04/20/2006  E0.75 INCH       WHITE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
305 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     HAIL             OIL TROUGH              35.63N 91.46W
04/20/2006  M1.00 INCH       INDEPENDENCE       AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
313 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     HAIL             DIAZ                    35.65N 91.26W
04/20/2006  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            AR   PUBLIC

&&

56