Hail in Arkansas, April 20, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
128 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

.AVIATION...
HAD TO INCLUDE CONVECTION IN TAFS RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN LIGHT OF
CURRENT SCOPE ON THE 88D.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1010 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006/

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES MAINLY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215 IN FIVE
COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS ABOUT ON TRACK. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO MIN TEMP FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT AND RAISED MINS A LITTLE IN THE SOUTH BASED ON DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 60S. POPS STILL LOOK GOOD AND COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGH IN THE NORTH.
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PREV DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN STORY WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS WARM FRONT
MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNTIL AFTER 09Z...WHEN COME MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE NORTH. PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH PBF SEEING
RAINFALL FIRST. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN RAINFALL AND CLOUDS BEFORE
NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
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PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 500 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE STATE. THIS WILL PROBABLY MOVE LITTLE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE
CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT WENT WITH SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT IN CASE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MANAGES TO MOVE UP INTO THAT
AREA. AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. KEPT POPS SMALL IN THE NORTH AND WENT
AS HIGH AS 40 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH...INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE ELEVATED SO DO NOT LOOK FOR
MUCH CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK TOOK MOST OF
THE CWA OUT OF SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND THEIR
5 PERCENT HAIL AREA HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. LOOKS
LIKE ANYTHING RESEMBLING SEVERE TONIGHT WOULD BE HAIL FROM ELEVATED
STORMS AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTH.
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. KEPT POPS ABOUT THE SAME FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.
THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT MAY GET LIFTED NORTH INTO THE CWA AS A
WARM FRONT. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD SEE GOOD OVERRUNNING AND HAVE SOME
CHANCE OF SEEING HEAVY RAIN. THIS COULD END UP BEING MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN SITUATION THAN SEVERE WEATHER WITH AN MCS COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT CERTAINLY HAVE TO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH
SOME BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF ENHANCED SHEAR. MAIN CHANCES WOULD BE
HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT FRIDAY THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
MAY COME IN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH ITS MAIN EFFECTS NOT REACHING
THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DID NOT CHANGE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW.

29/38/51

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
852 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
852 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT IDA TO
HOT SPRINGS TO PINE BLUFF.

A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED REPORT OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MENA TO CONWAY TO SEARCY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN BUT THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF DAMAGING
WINDS FROM SOME STORMS. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT MAY SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE DROUGHT IN PROGRESS SHOULD LESSEN
THE CHANCE OF FLOODING...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OUT OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. AS
IF OFTEN THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BECOME BETTER
DEFINED AS IT COMES CLOSER.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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