Damaging Wind in Arizona, June 27, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST TUE JUN 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF ARIZONA SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUNDING NOT QUITE AS CONVECTIVE AS YESTERDAY BUT WE
HAVE STILL MANAGED TO COME UP WITH SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. RIM HAS ALREADY FIRED OFF WITH FLOW FAVORABLE FOR
OUTFLOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FORECAST MAY BE THE IMPULSE SPINNING
UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SONORA TOWARD ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS. COULD SERVE AS A NICE ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION AS WELL AS
SHEPHERDING A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE UP FROM SONORA. WE HAVE INCREASED
OUR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. IN THE
SHORT TERM...THIS IMPULSE COULD SERVE TO EVEN ENHANCE OUR CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA THIS
WEEK...CONTINUING THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
STRONG...ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE...WITH NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES GENERALLY IN THE GOOD RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON