Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
325 PM PDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A JET
STREAK MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST. WHILE MOISTURE LOOKS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY I STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA WHERE MODELS DEPICT DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS OVER SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH GETS PUSHED TO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NEVADA AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL KEEP THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA FROM DRYING OUT.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY. WITH THIS TREND IN MIND...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS CENTRAL AND EAST SUNDAY WHERE A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTORMS THAT DAY. ON MONDAY...LEFT IN 10 TO 20
POPS IN MOHAVE COUNTY AS MOISTURE HANGS ON IN THIS REGION. WENT DRY
TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS DISPLACING MOISTURE TO THE
EAST. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRYING TREND...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
BUMPING THEM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS... KVGT... KDRA...
KBIH... KDAG... KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING ALL BUT ZONE 14.
.AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING ALL OF MOHAVE COUNTY.
.CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING ZONE 27..28 AND 29.

HARRISON/PIERCE/KENNEDY

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS