Arizona, 2006

Flash Flood in Arizona, July 4, 2006

July 4, 2006 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 2:10 PM MST, 6 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 2:10 PM MST, 6 hours 24 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST TUE JUL 4 2006

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE AZ THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WHERE THIS AREA
WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER AND/OR NEAR
MOUNTAINS...WITH CELL MOVEMENT GENERALLY NWWD ONLY AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS. PIMA COUNTY ALERT GAUGE VALID 2110Z INDICATED 1.46 INCHES OF
RAIN AT MT. LEMMON...WITH OTHER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.39-0.47 INCH
NEARBY.

SEVERAL SCENARIOS ABOUND FOR TONIGHT-WED. WITHOUT GOING THROUGH EACH
POTENTIAL SCENARIO...WILL SUMMARIZE WITH BELIEF THAT ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN SONORA TONIGHT ALONG
MOISTURE AXIS DEPICTED VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER COMPLEX OVER
FAR SRN SONORA LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WELL...GIVEN NWWD PROGRESSION OF
UPPER LOW. 04/12Z NAM DEPICTED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS EVENING OVER SWRN NM/FAR SE AZ AND BELIEVE THIS AREA TO
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS
EVENING APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT
STEERING FLOW AND INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.

DIFFERENCES IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS START AS EARLY AS WED. NAM MORE
ROBUST WITH MOISTURE/PRECIP FIELDS VERSUS GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM
SOLUTION WHICH IS INLINE WITH INHERITED FORECASTS IN DEPICTING SOME
UPSWING IN ACTIVITY MAINLY DURING THE THUR-FRI PERIOD. PER COORD
WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ OPTED TO REFLECT SOME INCREASE IN INHERITED POPS
WED-THUR...AND WILL DEPICT SOME LINGERING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/
TSTMS DURING THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS. ALSO PER COORD WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ
AM STILL NOT YET INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING
LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK VIA GFS. THUS LOW-GRADE POPS AT
LEAST STILL WARRANTED DURING THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS AND ONLY
VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA FIELDS.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER EXPECT
ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 4, 7:53 PM MST, 41 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
753 PM MST TUE JUL 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     17 SSW WILLCOX          32.02N 109.92W
07/04/2006  E70 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     18 S WILLCOX            32.00N 109.87W
07/04/2006  M60 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LADER

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:32 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Cochise

When
July 4, 8:34 PM MST to 9:00 PM MST
Where
Cochise County, 25 mi S of Willcox
Reported by
UNKNOWN
Coordinates
31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Several road were flooded in the Community of Sun Sites (25 miles south of the City of Willcox).

What these are

Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2006Every state in 2006This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2006

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5522567.