Hail in Arizona, July 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
100 PM MST MON JUL 3 2006

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADARS ARE CURRENTLY DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. ONE LONE CELL IS OVER
THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS AND THIS CELL HAS DEVELOPED IN NEARLY THE
SAME PLACE AND TIME AS THE CELL THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY. ANOTHER
LONE CELL HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PARKER CANYON LAKE WHICH IS RIGHT ALONG
THE SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTY LINE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ALSO ONGOING ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM FROM JUST NORTH OF PAYSON TO NEAR THE ALPINE AREAS AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW TODAY IS FROM THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS...SO STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DISTINCT VORTEX
OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM WESTERN SONORA. MODELS DEPICT
THESE PERTURBATIONS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE...BUT IT IS NOT EASY TO DETERMINE WHICH MODEL TO FOLLOW.
HOWEVER...GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE ABOVE TWO FEATURES DEPICTED IN THE
12Z RUN FAIRLY WELL. MODELS ALL GENERALLY SHOW AN UPPER HIGH JUST TO
OUR EAST OR ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS SONORA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWING A PW OF 1.29
INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
WILL THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME DAY TO
DAY VARIATIONS OF COURSE. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE TEXAS LOW TRIES TO MIGRATE WEST AND
AN UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER BAJA AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE ARIZONA OFFICES DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED. IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS UPWARD TREND FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO WE MAY SHOW
AN INCREASE IN POP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON