High Wind in Alaska, September 21 to 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER AROUND SOUTHERN ALASKA IS DOMINATED BY A
985 MB LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
LOW HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE THIS EVENING
AS IT MOVES INTO COOL INLET AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY.
THIS LOW HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS EVIDENCED BY THE EXTENSIVE
JET FEEDING INTO IT. AT 250 MB THIS JET COMES OFF OF NORTHERN JAPAN
AND THEN BENDS NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 40N 175W. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
BETWEEN 100 AND 150 KT FROM THAT POINT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AREA. THESE HIGH SPEEDS WILL HELP THE LOW SHEAR APART
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE THE MAIN
LOW PROCEED INTO THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH A
SECONDARY LOW FORMING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA IN THE LEE
OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO BE A GOOD SITUATION FOR A STRONG BARRIER JET TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. MARINE AREA 120 MAY SEE WINDS
NEAR 55 KT ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN THIS BARRIER JET.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NEXT LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM IS A
LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SATURDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN/ALASKA PENINSULA REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE LONG TERM...SUPER TYPHOON YAGI IS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF
JAPAN. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT INTO ALEUTIANS AND
POSSIBLY THE GULF OF ALASKA IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
FORECASTS OF EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NO RELIABLE THIS FAR OUT BUT
THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL STILL BE A STRONG LOW AS IT ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A WAYS OUT BUT BEARS WATCHING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 130 132 150.
         STORM 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 06