Blizzard and Avalanche in Alaska, February 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST WED FEB 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
INTERIOR. BROAD ANCHOR LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND. MODERATE WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING TO RIDE NORTH TO THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A CLOSED LOW TO MOVE
OUT OF THE WESTERN NORTHERN PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW TO WORK INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELS NORTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AND INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THIS LOW. ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW TO WORK
NORTH THROUGH THE GULF FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES AROUND THIS
LOW SATURDAY AND HEADS TO THE YUKON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
PATTERN WITH AN ANCHOR LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE ALEUTIANS TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

SURFACE SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TO LEAVE THE AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM VALDEZ EAST ALONG THE COAST AND ADJOINING WATERS. LOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING A WEAK FRONT TO
THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. A STRONG LOW TO MOVE NORTH TO KODIAK BY
THURSDAY MORNING PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE GULF AND TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT TO BRING STORM FORCE WINDS
AND POSSIBLE WARNING LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND TURNAGAIN ARM AS
IT PUSHES INLAND. ANOTHER FRONT...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT WEAKER...TO PUSH
THROUGH THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND INLAND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW TO
TRAVEL NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF SATURDAY AND ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GALE FORCE. BY THIS TIME...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WITH EACH OF THESE FRONTS WILL REFLECT TYPICAL
UPSLOPE AND DOWNSLOPE AREAS. AT THE PASSAGE OF EACH
FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INLAND AND QUICKLY MOVE OUT BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONT.

SURFACE WEST...LOW CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE
TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM AS IT RIDES NORTH. MAIN LOW IN THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN RIDING ALONG FRONT LEFT REGION OF 180 KT JET IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THIS LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN CURRENTLY
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AS IT WORKS TOWARD UNALASKA THURSDAY.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND GOOD AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO
ACCOMPANY THIS STACKED LOW. IT WILL TURN INTO THE BERING SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LOSES JET SUPPORT. STILL GOOD WINDS
AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
BERING TO SUSTAIN STRONG NORTH WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN
AND BERING SEA. THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF MOVES TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW TO CROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY AND LIFT TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN SATURDAY AND TOWARD THE CHUKOTSK LOW
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125 135
MARINE...STORM 120 125 130 132 140 170 172
         GALE 121 129 138 141 150 155 160 165 171 174 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 06