Blizzard in Alaska, February 2 to 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU FEB 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
POLAR LOW IN THE BERING STRAIT CURRENTLY TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THIS PATTERN TO REMAIN INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY VARIATION IN THIS PATTERN IS A COUPLE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS WOULD BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN OVER THE GULF. AS A
RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BE OPEN TO ANY SYSTEM ROTATING AROUND THE
MAJOR LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. THE RESULTANT STORM TRACK WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND LASTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

THE STORM TRACK CHANGE WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. STORMS THAT HAD BEEN WORKING
NORTH TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND RIDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
TURN NORTH TOWARD BRISTOL BAY THEN MORE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF
COAST LOCATIONS RATHER THAN THE CURRENT SNOWFALL. IN
ADDITION...STRONGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING RATHER THAN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY.

SURFACE PATTERN...A LOW NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WITH A BIT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING TODAY.
BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY WORK
ONSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS AND VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
SEVERE AS EARLIER OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH WIND AND
PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT. FRONT TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW DOES FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF SHEMYA TO WORK TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. EXPECT PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT STORM FORCE WINDS TO REACH
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A
FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AS WELL. WITH IT...WILL BE STRONG
GALE FORCE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE KENAI PENINSULA ON THE WINDWARD SIDES WITH SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE LOW WEAKENS
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM JET SUPPORT TOWARD ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH SOME BARRIER JET PROPERTIES BEING
ESTABLISHED...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A STRONGER LOW WILL FOLLOW THIS LOW BUT WITH A MUCH MORE EASTERLY
TRACK. THIS LOW TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN UP TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BREAK THE
RIDGE IN THE GULF AND ALLOW THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW TO MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY. BEHIND THIS LOW...THERE WILL BE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION TO BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSLOPE AND
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY. BUT...AS THE FLOW
WEAKENS AND THE JET CORE MOVES OFF THE PANHANDLE PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INLAND MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 155 TIL 4 PM TODAY
MARINE...STORM 155 170
         GALE 130 150 160 165 171 172 175 176 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 138 140 141 150 165 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...

JN FEB 06