Cold in Alaska, February 1, 2006

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 PM AST TUE JAN 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH FRI. TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CLOSED
LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WED THEN NORTH OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE TO CANADA THU TO NORTH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN THU
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA
INTO THU THEN BE FORCED NORTHWARD ON FRI BY DEEPENING TROUGH FROM
RUSSIA SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. BEYOND FRI MODELS BUILD
RIDGE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TO
MACKENZIE BAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST TO CENTRAL
INTERIOR ON SAT MOVES EAST AND CAUSES AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A
CHINOOK FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ON SUN. BY SUN...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL PROGS OF POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OR BRISTOL BAY.

SURFACE...RUSSIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT WEST TONIGHT AND
WED. GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
WED NIGHT TO THU THEN INTO CANADA THU NIGHT AND FRI. LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THU AND THU NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTH
OVER THE NULATO HILLS FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH POSITION AND DEPTH OF LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.THE GFS HAS STRONG LOW OVER CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI MOVING
DIRECTLY NORTH OVER BERING SEA SAT. THE ECMF SPLITS IT AND KEEPS
IT SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY. IN EITHER CASE THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE GFS
WOULD HAVE IT CONSIDERABLY MORE WINDY.

NORTH SLOPE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THROUGH WED THEN
FROM DEADHORSE EAST A GRADUAL WARM UP SHOULD START AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SPREAD TO THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST SAT. A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER WEATHER SHOULD BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS...FOG...AND
FLURRIES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MILDER TEMPERATURES.

WEST COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH WED AS
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH TO OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND.
TEMPERATURES MAY START TO WARM THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE WARMING
THROUGH SAT AS LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A
CHANCE OF SNOW WILL ALSO COME WITH THE SYSTEM. BY SAT...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING OF LOW PRESSURE OVER BERING
SEA...FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR. THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE AN
INCREASE OF WINDS WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

INTERIOR...A BREAK IN THE COLD FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
INTERIOR WED TO WED NIGHT WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. THE LOW MOVES INTO CANADA THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR ABOUT A ONE TO TWO DAY
PERIOD. WARMING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE MOVES
EAST INTO CANADA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

AUGUSTINE VOLCANIC ASH...ANY ASH WHICH HAS DRIFTED NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND BETWEEN
10,000 TO 16,000 FEET. THE ASH WILL BE VERY DISPERSED AND THUS NOT
VISIBLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

DA JAN 06