Hail and Lightning Strike in Alabama, June 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
150 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
EARLIER AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BOTH GFS AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW AN INVERTED
V STRUCTURE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. GFS FORECASTS
WINDEX VALUES OF 70 KNOTS AND NAM FORECASTS WINDEX VALUES REACHING
51 KNOTS. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND LI
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -10 DEGREES. THEREFORE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SIMILAR SETUP ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY STARTING A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE MID 90S...AS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA FALLS APART AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

GFS MOVES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AL BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...DO NOT BUY INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THAT
QUICKLY. THE NAM MOVES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. THUS 40 POP ON
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD.

CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA WILL GET CAUGHT IN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS WILL
LEAVE 40 POP IN FOR SUNDAY. NEW 12Z NAM STARTING TO SUPPORT GFS
SOLUTION OF MOVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT QUICKER.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT..AS PER
GFS...BUT THE MODEL MOVES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH NORTHERN
ALABAMA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE CUTOFF OF ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD. THUS
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  96  72  94 /  20  30  30  40
SHOALS        72  94  72  92 /  20  30  30  40
CULLMAN       71  95  71  93 /  20  30  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  72  96  72  94 /  20  30  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   70  97  71  95 /  20  30  30  40
FORT PAYNE    67  98  70  96 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-231000-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
100 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS THAT ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS...AND A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT WITH ALL STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY...THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK. ANYONE ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO KEEP WELL-HYDRATED...
AND TAKE PERIODIC BREAKS INDOORS OR IN THE SHADE TO AVOID BECOMING
OVERHEATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM THREATS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
552 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

ALZ016-222330-
CULLMAN-
552 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HANCEVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HANCEVILLE.
  WALTER.
  HOLLY POND.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

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