Damaging Winds in Alabama, July 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF 21/1200Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED STRONG UPPER RIDGING
MAINTAINING ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A SPEED MAX NOTED OVER SW
CANADA WAS HEADED THIS DIRECTION...AND COULD BE AN INFLUENCE WITH
SATURDAYS WEATHER. A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WITH +20 TEMPS AT 850MB
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA...AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SE COAST CONTINUES A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH 3 PM TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER
90S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ANOTHER 100F AT MERIDIANVILLE. LUCKILY...
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WERE ONLY ADDING A FEW DEGREES
TO THE DRY BULB TEMPS...KEEPING THEM WELL BELOW OUR LOCAL CRITERIA OF
110F FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.

THIS SHOULD BE A LAST DAY OF MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE PRESENT...THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORM FOR THE SHORT TERM. COOLER
TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINS IS IN THE CARDS FOR TOMORROW.
THE LATER IS MORE OF A CERTAINTY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING SATURDAY. HOWEVER AS IS USUALLY THE CASE
DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS... MODEL QPF WAS VERY INCONSISTENT. THE NGM
HAD THE MOST PRECIP...WITH THE WRF/NAM THE DRIEST. IT HOWEVER WAS
FOCUSED MORE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
THE VALLEY...THEN REFORMING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TENN RIVER SAT AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME
TOMORROW. ITS PASSAGE WILL HELP BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINS...THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN THE 60 CHANCE RANGE. DESPITE THE OPTIMISTIC
POPS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SAT EVENING WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH...
HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME OF THE STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE TOMORROW...WITH THE MAIN RISKS DAMAGING
WINDS. MOST OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS REGION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN...HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL ONLY WARM TO AROUND 90. A DAY OF DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.

NOT MANY CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE EXTENDED. 00Z AND 12Z GFS MODEL
DATA AND MOS KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW AREAS MAY GET A BONUS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AND MORE CLOUDS...COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S WILL AT LEAST GIVE A BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVE WARMTH OF
LATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74  90  67  86 /  20  60  40  10
SHOALS        73  90  66  87 /  20  60  30  10
CULLMAN       72  89  63  86 /  20  60  50  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  88  65  86 /  20  60  40  10
ALBERTVILLE   73  89  68  84 /  20  60  50  20
FORT PAYNE    71  89  68  86 /  20  60  60  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

RSB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-220230-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NEAR RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS OF UP TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...AND A FEW MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.