Hail in Wyoming, July 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MT THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE. 60F+ DEW POINTS TO THE EAST WITH 40S
AND 50S TO THE WEST. ANOTHER TROUGH NOTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT
THROUGH CENTRAL CO...A CONVERGENCE LINE WITH ENOUGH FORCE TO POP
SOME HIGH-BASED -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR RESULTING IN
MULTICELL ACTIVITY. THERMOMETER SWELLING WELL INTO THE 90S AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND THERMAL RIDGE SHARPENS OVER CWA.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND A SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY FOR THIS
EVENING...SO CURRENT -TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS MLCIN RAPIDLY REDEVELOPS AFTER SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT
NEAR GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE/CAP VERY WELL DEFINED FOR
SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN UNMENTIONABLE CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 16-18C SUPPORTS MOST OF THE
PLAINS ABOVE 100F...AND WELL INTO THE 90S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ORGANIZE OVER MT AND MOVE IN ND SUNDAY...DRAGGING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
-TSRA ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE FRONT WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE
DIFFICULT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. IT DOES LOOK 10F
COOLER ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXTENDED...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE...AS IT REDEVELOPS MID-WEEK. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED
TO CONVECTION FIRING IN RESPONSE TO SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES...BUT
AT THIS POINT NOT WORTH ADDING POPS. OTHERWISE THE AREA CAN EXPECT
SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR BY
LATE EVENING. BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...PUT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN TWEBS EXCEPT ALONG THE EASTERN ROUTES WHERE
ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SECTIONS CLOSER TO KRAP.

&&

.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

HELGESON/CALDERON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
654 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2005

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-091300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
654 AM MDT (754 AM CDT) FRI JUL 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THIS CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
MINIMAL...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...ONE OR TWO COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD
BE PENNY SIZED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.