Hail in Wisconsin, September 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
200 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHCS AND
TIMING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SAT NGT/SUN.
OUR 88D RADAR REMAINS OTS DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT MODIFICATION. IT IS
HOPED WE WILL HAVE IT UP AND TURNING BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER
THIS EVENING.

WV IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH A TROPICAL PLUME PUSHING NE AHEAD OF IT.
THIS PLUME ORIGINATES FROM THE DIMINISHING ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
MAX.

MID LEVEL S/W ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF THIS PLUME TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTN.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVR ERN SDKTA WITH
TROF EXTENDING FROM NE MN TO SW NEB DEPICTED BEST BY 12Z GFS. WITH
TROPICAL CONNECTION...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E ADVECTION HITS THE
REGION CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SFC THETA-E AXIS
STRETCHING THE INTERSECTION OF IA/SD/NEB NORTHEAST INTO NCNTRL WI.
LI/S DROPPING THERE THIS AFTN AND WITH CU FORMING SHOULD SEE FIRST
SIGNS OF RADAR ECHOES SOON. QPF FROM NAM STILL LOOKS A FEW HOURS TOO
FAST INTO OUR CWA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE BEST CONTINUITY FROM RUN
TO RUN AND WITH REALITY. WILL KEEP PCPN TIMING FOCUSED MAINLY
FROM VRY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. H7 INDICATING STRONG
OMEGA OVER THE AREA TONIGHT IN IMPRESSIVE REGION OF H7 WARM
ADVECTION. PROXIMITY OF SRN PERIPHERY OF H2 JET SHOULD PROVIDE UPR
LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

SOUNDINGS SHOW LLV CIN IN THE FORM OF A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS CAP IS LOW...HOWEVER...SITTING AROUND 2KFT AND SHOULD BE BROKEN
AS FRONT AND CONVECTION PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. NAM SOUNDING SHOW
CAPES OF AROUND 1100 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR MAG OF 35-40KT.

SFC FRONT EXITS AROUND 15Z ON THU...MEANWHILE THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED INTERMOUNTAIN S/W COMES THROUGH AROUND 18Z. THE S/W
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONTOGENISIS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP PRECIP GOING STRONG THROUGH MID DAY.  ALTHOUGH THE S/W WILL
HAVE LOST MUCH OF IT/S STRONGER CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW OF THE UPR MIDWEST...IT SHOULD STILL BE A
POTENT FEATURE.  THE GFS...PER USUAL...SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND BLOWS UP 60+UNIT VORT OVR THE AREA AT 18Z THU. THROUGH
WAY OVERDONE...IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA.

SFC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVER WRN GTLKS AND DRIVES FNT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRY BUT COOL FRI...WITH NE-E WINDS AND 850
TEMPS DIPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN
PLAINS FRI NIGHT...AND SHIFTS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES SAT...BRINGING
WARMER AIR AND THE CHC FOR TSTMS BACK INTO FORECAST.  THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
844 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-231345-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
844 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LMZ643>646-665-231345-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
844 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NEARSHORE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
30 KNOTS AS WAVES BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 8 FEET WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

.MARINER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR MORE TO
THE COAST GUARD FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.