Tornadoes and Hail in Wisconsin, May 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO TONIGHT TO BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES.  UNDERCUT LOWS TONIGHT JUST A BID.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
OF WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY IS IN STORE WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS WISCONSIN. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITION WILL
BREAK OUT AS 850MB JET INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WILL TEMPER THE WARM
UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE...
SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY...BEFORE
BEING SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TO LIKELY CATEGORY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING WITH
FRONT. ETA/GFS SHOW DIFFERENT DEGREES ON HOW UNSTABLE THE AIR MASS WILL
BE...BUT IF WE DO GET ANY SUN MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS
AROUND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A DRY DAY
TO THE AREA. STRONG WARM FRONT DEPICTED BY GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTH TOWARDS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DID UP RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THIS WAS SEEN ON THE MEX ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD A 12 DEGREE
SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
OPERATION MEX GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...BUT NOT QUIET AS COLD AS THE
OPERATIONAL MEX GUIDANCE WAS LOWEST OF THE MEMBERS. WENT A FEW DEGREES
COLDER FOR HIGHS FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ECKBERG/TDH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON ENDING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE AND TAKE THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

KURIMSKI/KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY