Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 23, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

.SHORT TERM...PCPN COVERAGE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MAIN
FEATURE FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE THE S/W WHICH IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO REACH NORTHWEST WISCONSOIN LATER TODAY BEFORE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  BEST HEIGHT FALLS THIS EVENING COINCIDE WITH STRONG
ISENT LIFT WITH THE WAA AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE NWD MOVEMENT...SURFACE BASE
STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT IMMPRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE THE
ELEVATED VARIETY.  REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...SINCE NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE ABLE TO STAY NORTH OF THE WARMFRONT FOR A LONGER
DURATION...BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SATURATING THE AIRMASS AND THEREFORE
WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY CAT FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR TNT.
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CAP EDGE MAY SHIFT INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN IN
THAT REGION AND MAIN AREA OF THE PCPN WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO THE UP.  IF THE NAMS SOLUTION IS CORRECT WITH RESPECT TO
THE SURFACE FRONT...SEVERE THREAT INCREASES DUE TO THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD.
GFS GUID MAX TEMPS QUITE COOLER THAN NAM AND ETA FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE WARMFRONT AND PCPN ARRIVING EARLIER.  WILL
LOWER CURRENT LEVELS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND CLOUD
COVER.  FORECAST TEMP AND DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY PRODUCE HEAT INDICES JUST
BELOW CRITERIA FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL INCLUDE RANGE IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE MAINLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOCATION OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY. 00Z/23RD NAM/GFS BOTH BRING QPF INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER AND SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION IN RELATIVELY FLAT 500 MB FLOW. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE
ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THAT PERIOD. HPC PREFERS GFS FOR THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY PERIODS...SO HAVE KEPT WITH IT THROUGH
SATURDAY. GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE ON TUESDAY SO
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH NOTHING LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HPC
SURFACE SYSTEMS BASED ON 00Z/22ND MODELS HAS A CHANCE OF PCPN MOVING
INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN. BUT 00Z/23RD
GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE STATE AND I HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

TDH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-
048>050-073-074-241645-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND LAKESHORE AREAS TONIGHT.

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREEN BAY TO
RHINELANDER. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

AS THE WARM FROM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90 TO 95
RANGE...AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
100 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EB
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

WIZ018>021-030-031-035>039-045-048-049-074-232200-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-MARATHON-
SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
INCLUDING TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS
POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH AND CHILTON
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

BROWN
CALUMET
LINCOLN
LANGLADE
MARATHON
MENOMINEE
OCONTO
OUTAGAMIE
PORTAGE
SHAWANO
WAUPACA
WAUSHARA
WINNEBAGO
WOOD

ECKBERG

ECKBERG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY