Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 18, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND MON. MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE ON PCPN CHCS THIS
EVENING AND THEN LTR TNGT WHEN CDFNT APPROACHES.

THE 18Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS PLACED THE CDFNT FROM NW MN S-SW INTO NW KS.
DEW PTS AHD OF THE FNT HAD RISEN INTO THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING OVR ERN WI WHERE DEW PTS WERE IN THE LWR 60S. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWED CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING STARTED AS ATM WAS
CAPPED. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED OVR CNTRL WI DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP.

EXPECT THE CNTRL WI CONVECTION TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIMINISHES. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO WORK ACROSS MOST OF WI LTR
TNGT AND RESIDE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 12Z MON. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE FNT TO PUSH INTO WRN WI THIS EVENING AND REACH CNTRL WI
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNGT. PBLM FOR ANY NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS THE
TIME OF THE FROPA (DURING THE NGT) AS ATM TYPICALLY STABLIZES. IN
ADDITION...BETTER DYNAMICS APR TO SPLIT AS THE FNT APPROACHES WITH GOOD
Q-G FORCING AHD OF THE SHRTWV TROF PEELING NORTH AND FAVORABLE UPR JET
LIFT SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. BEST LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN APRS TO BE OVR THE WRN
THIRD OF THE FCST AREA SO WL BUMP THEIR POPS UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY. WL
THEN TIER PCPN DOWN TO ONLY 30% OVR ERN WI. ANOTHER MILD NGT WITH
INCREASING CLDS AND SOME WND THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. DO NOT PLAN TO STRAY
FAR FROM GUID.

WL NEED TO LEAVE CHC POPS OVR THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA INTO MON
MORNING TIL THE FNT CLEARS THE AREA. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MILD START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE 80S. DRIER AIR A LITTLE SLOWER PUSHING INTO WI ON MON SO HAVE
RAISED DEW PTS A COUPLE OF DEGS FROM PREV FCST. WNDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX ESP ACROSS N-CNTRL WI WHERE CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE FIRST. MOST
LOCATIONS WL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES IN SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY IN PERIOD...LIFTING NORTH AS EAST-
WEST RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN STATES BUILDS NORTH.  MAINLY DRY PERIOD
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES AOA NORMAL.

SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR TUE. THE HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST ON WED WITH RETURN FLOW
BEGINNING BY LATER AFTERNOON.  AGAIN IT APPEARS THAT MODELS TOO FAST ON
RECOVERY OF DEW POINTS FOLLOWING THE HIGH FOR LATER WED/BRING LOW OR MID
70 DEW POINTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY 00Z THU. CWA APPEARS WILL BE IN
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA
DRAGGING COLD FRONT SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS.  BOTH
MODELS GENERATE LARGE BULLS-EYES OF PCPN EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
CWA. GIVEN DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
AND GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN WILL STAY WITH PREVIOUS 20 POPS IN
GRIDS...KEEPING MENTION OF PCPN OUT OF TEXT ATTM.  HIGH AGAIN QUICKLY
MOVES IN FOR THU AFTN AND FRI. FRONT RETURNS NORTH SAT AS A WARM FRONT
LINGERING OVER AREA THROUGH SUN. WILL DRAG SMALL 30 POPS INTO SUN.

WENT WITH WARMER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THROUGH PERIOD...GIVEN 850 TEMPS
WELL INTO THE TEENS WED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

KALLAS/TE
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-181645-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. HEAT INDICES COULD RISE TO AROUND 100 ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE AVOIDED UNDER SUCH
CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH EAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD STILL BE SEVERE WHEN THEY REACH
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO IRON
MOUNTAIN MICHIGAN...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-181645-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH EAST. THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND
WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY