Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, July 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
255 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LAST DAY OF SIGNIFICANT HEAT TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.  BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  BULK OF TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH ON THE WESTERN SLOPES LATER THIS EVENING AND DEVELOP IN
SHARPENING LEE TROF JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS LEE TROF WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BE
A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE REGIONS WX AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BEST CHCS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS FIRST SIGNIFICANT WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT. FRONT AND
BEST SPPT FOR RAIN GETS SUPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE WAVE FRI
NGT AND SATURDAY...THEN SECOND WAVE SLATED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA. MOST OF THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN COOL...STABLE THRU THE
WEEKEND. FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAIN. THIS LAST WAVE WILL
EXIT EARLY IN THE WEEK USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CHCS OF TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.

CHCS OF RAIN WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE MEANDERINGS OF THE FRONT AND
HOW MUCH THE WAVES WILL AFFECT ITS MOVEMENT.  BUT AT THIS TIME IT
LKS LIKE AREA EAST OF THE MTNS COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
RAIN FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...THIS BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. A LEE TROUGH
WAS STILL OVER THE PIEMONTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.
CONVECTION ALONG THAT FEATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING IS ALSO EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT SETTLES OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS WILL ENTER INTO REGION WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ALONG WITH MVFR LIGHT FOG. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REFIRE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY MID-
DAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR VAZ022-032>035-043>047-058-059 UNTIL 7 PM
     WEDNESDAY.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ004>006-020 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
WV...NONE.
&&

JS/JS/DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
333 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ022-032>035-043>047-058-059-280745-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
333 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING 100
DEGREES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NCZ003-019-VAZ023-024-280745-
SURRY-WILKES-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
333 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO
RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>045-280745-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
333 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE TO BETWEEN
95 AND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

VAZ020-WVZ045-272058-
BATH-GREENBRIER-
419 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

A COUPLE OF AREAS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREENBRIER AND
BATH COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM. ONE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST OUT
OF NORTHEASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...INTO WESTERN BATH COUNTY.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS BACOVA JUNCTION....CALLISON AND HOT SPRINGS CAN
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THIS STORM
BETWEEN 430 PM AND 500 PM. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GREENBRIER COUNTY...MAINLY FROM FRANKFORD WEST TO MEADOW
BLUFF. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...
ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STAY INDOORS IF A STORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA...AND AVOID USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. ALSO STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

05