Flash Flooding in Virginia, July 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ALNG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN.
WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA TIL 00Z...THEN TALLY BACK TO
CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...ANY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINERS AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...STORMS
ARE MOVING ALONG...AND ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING EXPECTED IF ANY. SO
NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLANNED.

THE FORECAST TONIGHT-MON NIGHT LOOKS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NO APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO GET ORGANIZED CONVECTION
GOING...BUT PLENTY OF JUICE AND HEAT IN THE LOW LVLS WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL LIFT FROM MTNS...AND LEE SIDE TROF CONVERGENCE TO KEEP
MAINLY A DIURNAL THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THIS TIME.

5H HGHTS/8H TEMPS INCREASE...SO AFTNS WILL BECOME A TAD HOTTER...AND
DEFINITELY MORE HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST. BY
MONDAY WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 EAST OF LYNCHBURG
AND DANVILLE. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWO). LOOKS LIKE PRE FRONTAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE FA BY 12Z TUESDAY...SO KEPT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A COLD FRONT DROPS IN TO OUR NRN FA BY WED...WHICH WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE POPS THEN. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL MID-LATE JULY WX WITH MAINLY
SCTD AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION AND VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS AND VSYS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH ANY OF THESE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST TAFS SITES IFR DUE TO STRATUS AND LWB LIFR WITH STRATUS AND
FOG.
&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

05/05/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-170930-
ALLEGHANY NC-ALLEGHANY VA-AMHERST-APPOMATTOX-ASHE-BATH-BEDFORD-BLAND-
BOTETOURT-BUCKINGHAM-CAMPBELL-CARROLL-CASWELL-CHARLOTTE-CRAIG-FLOYD-
FRANKLIN-GILES-GRAYSON-GREENBRIER-HALIFAX-HENRY-MERCER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PATRICK-PITTSYLVANIA-PULASKI-ROANOKE-ROCKBRIDGE-
ROCKINGHAM-SMYTH-STOKES-SUMMERS-SURRY-TAZEWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-WYTHE-
YADKIN-
523 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A HIGH
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO VERY
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF RECENT RAINS...
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS. AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES COULD
CAUSE FLOOD PROBLEMS IN THE PIEDMONT. ANY RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN
2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT
WILL BE FASTER MOVING AND LESS OF A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA WILL RISE IN TO THE LOWER 90S BY MONDAY. IT WILL ALSO
BE QUITE HUMID...BRINGING HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE HOT
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

VAZ022-161915-
ROANOKE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SALEM
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROANOKE COUNTY THROUGH 3:00 PM. EXPECT PONDING OF
WATER IN ROANOKE CITY...AND IN OTHER URBAN AREAS. ANY LOW LYING
AREAS...OR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE POOR DRAINAGE WILL ALSO HAVE
STANDING WATER EVEN AFTER THE THE STORMS PASS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORRENTIAL RAIN...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
217 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

NCZ018-161945-
WATAUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BOONE
217 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DUMPED VERY HEAVY RAIN
IN CENTRAL BOONE COUNTY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE BETWEEN
SUGAR GROVE AND VALLE CRUCIS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 4:00 PM WILL PROLONG ANY PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...ROADSIDE DITCHES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GIVE
YOURSELF TIME TO FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF WATER IS BLOCKING YOUR
WAY.

AMS