Damaging Wind in Virginia, July 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERALL STATUS QUO FCST CONTS IN THE SHORT RANGE WITH LOCATIONS OF
BEST CONVECTIVE CHCS THE MAIN QUESTION ESPCLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SAT AFTN. AGAIN HAVE ANOTHER REMNANT TSRA BAND MOVG INTO THE BLUE
RIDGE ATTM AND THIS ALONG WITH ADDED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE HOLD THE KEY FOR CHCS THIS EVENING. SINCE MODELS GNRLY
PINPOINT BEST UVV ACROSS THE N IN LINE WITH HIEST INSTAB ALONG OLD
SFC TROF...PLAN TO GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS THERE SW INTO THE NW
NC RIDGES EARLY ON. TRICKY AS TO ADDED COVERAGE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNGT WITH LACK OF MUCH FOCUS ALOFT BUT PLENTY OF RH ARND.
LIKE SOME CONT CHC POPS WRN/NRN ZONES WHILE LEAVING ONLY ISOLD SE
WHERE OFFSHORE RIDGING LOOKS A BIT STRONGER. TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW NGTS GIVEN LITTLE DEWPT CHANGE.

UPPER RIDGE CONTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY W ON SAT...ALLOWING BEST RH TO
SHIFT BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT AFTN. NAM/CANADIAN APPEAR TO CAPTURE
THIS BETTER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE CHCS WELL OFF TO THE SE.
THINK THIS A BIT OVERDONE PER HIGH GFS PWATS/RH TRANSPORT SO WILL
CONFINE LOW LIKELYS BLUE RIDGE W AND LOW CHCS SE. BETTER WSW FLOW
ALOFT AGAIN SUPPORTS SOME TRAINING PTNL UNDER UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJ SO
WILL INCLUDE HVY RAIN MENTION. LIKE TEMPS A BIT WARMER ESPCLY E
GIVEN MORE SUN BUT STILL GNRLY A MAV/MET MOS COMP FOR NOW.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...

LEANING MORE TOWARD 12Z GFS...LOOKS LIKE THIS PERIOD WILL SEE
TYPICAL MAX OF POPS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH LOWER POPS AT
NIGHT/MORNING...AS BASICALLY ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY
DRIVEN...WITH LITTLE UPPER AIR FEATURES. LEE TROF DEEPENS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD 8H THETA RIDGING. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SEE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCE OF TSRA...ALTHOUGH KEEPING 30/40 POPS. ALSO
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS UNDER MOS OUT
EAST. STILL LOOKING HOT SUNDAY WITH A WEST FLOW...CLOSE TO MAV MOS.
OFF AND ON CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT TEMPS FROM GETTING REALLY HOT.

MON-FRI...

5H/SFC HIGH BUILDS MORE INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD...WITH
TYPICAL JULY WEATHER EXPECTED. HOT/HUMID WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE
FA MIDWEEK INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN...THEN SWING SOUTH INTO
NRN SC BY FRIDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES ESPECIALLY NRN CWA BY THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...

TAFS WILL BE DEALING WITH SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND VSBY
REDUCTONS IN THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CLD DECK HAS THINNED SOMEWHAT
ALLOWING FOR SCT TSTORMS TO DVLP IN A QUASI-LINEAR FASHION AS IN
PREV DAYS. CIGS/VSBYS MAY VARY OVR SHRT PERIODS IN/AFTER SHWR ACTIVTY
TDA. BR/FG LIKELY TNGT ESP WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

JH/WP/PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
527 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-160930-
ALLEGHANY NC-ALLEGHANY VA-AMHERST-APPOMATTOX-ASHE-BATH-BEDFORD-BLAND-
BOTETOURT-BUCKINGHAM-CAMPBELL-CARROLL-CASWELL-CHARLOTTE-CRAIG-FLOYD-
FRANKLIN-GILES-GRAYSON-GREENBRIER-HALIFAX-HENRY-MERCER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PATRICK-PITTSYLVANIA-PULASKI-ROANOKE-ROCKBRIDGE-
ROCKINGHAM-SMYTH-STOKES-SUMMERS-SURRY-TAZEWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-WYTHE-
YADKIN-
527 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A LITTLE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...SO THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THIS
AIRMASS...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...
AND BECAUSE OF RECENT RAINS...MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJ