Hail in Virginia, December 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
536 PM EST WED DEC 28 2005

SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...AXIS OF UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO SUPPLY
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AT THIS HOUR.  WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
60S THROUGHOUT MOST OF EAST TENNESSEE AHEAD OF THE STORMS.  DEW
POINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ALONG THE VA BORDER TO THE MID 50S
ALONG THE GA BORDER.  LIFTED INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1.5 ALONG
THE VA BORDER TO 3.5 DEGREES ALONG THE GA BORDER.

STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...APPROACHING THE TRI CITIES
AREA...HAVE GONE THROUGH SOME MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE PAST
HOUR...BUT ARE APPROACHING BETTER INSTABILITY.  TIMING OF THE
EVENING COOLING IS TOUGH TO CALL...BUT STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
IN THIS AREA.

ALONG THE GA BORDER STRONG INSTABILITY AND BACKED WINDS ARE KEEPING
CONVECTION VERY WELL ORGANIZED.

SPC GRAPHICS ARE SHOWING GOOD CHANCES OF MID LEVEL ROTATION...BUT
MUCH LESS CHANCES OF ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  CLOSE LOOK
DOESNT SHOW ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE...SO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WOULD MAY HAVE TO DEPEND ON LOCAL
TERRAIN.  STILL EXPECTING DAMAGING OUTFLOW THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND
MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...BUT THE PRIME TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO
BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

GM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
952 AM EST WED DEC 28 2005

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-291000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
952 AM EST (852 AM CST) WED DEC 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE.  ALSO...THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM ONEIDA TO KNOXVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
549 PM EST WED DEC 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TEN MILE                35.67N 84.67W
12/28/2005                   MEIGS              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
550 PM EST WED DEC 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             PENNINGTON GAP          36.76N 83.03W
12/28/2005  0.88 INCH        LEE                VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
551 PM EST WED DEC 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LENOIR CITY             35.80N 84.27W
12/28/2005                   LOUDON             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
554 PM EST WED DEC 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             BUFFALO SPRINGS         36.22N 83.57W
12/28/2005  0.75 INCH        GRAINGER           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
616 PM EST WED DEC 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             MORRISTOWN              36.21N 83.30W
12/28/2005  0.50 INCH        HAMBLEN            TN   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
618 PM EST WED DEC 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             BENTON                  35.18N 84.65W
12/28/2005  1.00 INCH        POLK               TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.

&&