Damaging Wind in Virginia, August 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR CWA TONIGHT. BELIEVE THEY ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD
SURGE GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW INVOLVED. WILL BRING THE FRONT TO NEAR A
CLARKSBURG...WEST VIRGINIA TO JACKSON...OHIO LINE BY 12Z. FOR
PRECIP...THE MODELS ARE WEAK ON QPF AND SO FAR THIS HAS BEEN
JUSTIFIED.  IT DOES APPEAR THE FRONT IS GENERALLY INACTIVE WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION STRONGLY RELATED TO THE DIURNAL FACTOR.
SO...STILL BELIEVE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREAS. THEN A RAPID DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...KEPT A CHANCE IN THE
NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. FOR TEMPS...SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...AGAIN A COLD BIAS TO THE MAV AND HAVE UPPED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES. NORTH OF THE FRONT WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE MAV.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA
MAY SINK SLOWLY SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL AM SKEPTICAL THAT IT WILL
MAKE IT THROUGH THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.  NEVERTHELESS...SHOULD
SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY WITH BOUNDARY
NEARBY AND DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.  A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND THE MODELS PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.  RAN WITH
CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WHICH IS ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.  BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 135 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005)

AVIATION...

FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO A CKB-SDF LINE
BY 12Z MONDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS MORNING VERY INACTIVE...BUT WITH
HEATING...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...EXCEPT AT PKB
WHICH IS NEAREST THE FRONT...HAVE LEFT TSTMS OUT OF TAFS GIVEN THE
RANDOM NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION. FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF HEATING...A GENERAL DIMINISHING OF THE
TSTMS...EVEN ALONG THE FRONT. TONIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
CLOUDS AND MVFR IN HAZE AND FOG...EXCEPT AT EKN WHERE CONDITIONS MAY
GO IFR. AFTER 13Z GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TSTMS REDEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1220 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CWA EARLY TO
MID WEEK SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.  WITH MODELS
INDICATING UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL MEAN
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION AND HAVE PLAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BACK INTO UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  NO REAL BIG FRONTS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1054 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AND SHIFT
EAST WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOST
OF THE REGION WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE THE CLOUDS FROM THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE. THUS...MAX TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN RAISED 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCHING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
BETTER MOISTURE FINALLY OVER OUR REGION...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS...ESPECIALLY  OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...HC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-150900-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEAST OHIO...VIRGINIA...OH AND KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JS / TRM