Lightning Strike in North Carolina, August 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE WATERS JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH THIS
MORNING. THIS IS POTENTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 500 MB VORT
CENTER THE NAM TAKES SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS
WHICH DOES NOT SEEM TO AGREE AS CLOSELY WITH THE RADAR INDICATIONS.
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON KEEPS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS BRUNSWICK THROUGH
PENDER COUNTY (50%) FALLING INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

WIDESPREAD MORNING FOG IS ATTEMPTING TO BURN OFF ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS. FOG WAS VERY THICK AROUND FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON EARLIER THIS
MORNING BUT HAS SINCE IMPROVED.

ONLY UPDATE TO THE ZONES WILL BE TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY COASTLINES BASED ON
FEEDBACK FROM THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL AND BUOY 41013 SWELL OBS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW COASTAL WATERS FORECAST RIGHT ON
TRACK. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OF MINIMAL THREAT...WITH A STANDARD
DIURNAL BACKING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.

SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS THE MAIN COMPONENT FOR WAVES AND
WILL BE FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. OBSERVATIONS FROM 41013 SHOW
PERIODS AND HEIGHTS HAVE LEVELED OFF THE PAST FEW HOURS...THEREFOR
THREE TO FIVE FEET IN ZONES SHOULD SUFFICE.

BASED ON REPORTS FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...WILL INCREASE RIP RISK TO
HIGH FOR EAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG MIXING OUT NICELY IN FLO AND CRE...LEAVING BASICALLY THE SAME
PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR DAYS NOW...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH 5SM/HAZE
AND CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ALL SITES HAVE EITHER VCTS OR TEMPO
GROUPS TO ADDRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

PUBLIC...TRA
MARINE & AVIATION...SHK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-
039-046-151000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM-ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-
GEORGETOWN-
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...REMAINING ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES FROM
SURF CITY TO EAST BALD HEAD ISLAND TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE AS HIGH AS 100 TO 102 DEGREES FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE AROUND 102 DEGREES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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