Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 31, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

.SHORT TERM...
THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT AIDED THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IS CURRENTLY ASSISTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. AS THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO COLORADO WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED SHEAR TO ASSIST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH EASTERN AREAS SEEING VERY LITTLE CHANCE WITH WHAT
APPEARS TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES OF ANYTHING MOVING INTO THE CWA
WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IF THUNDERSTORMS
CAN ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX. OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD INTERACT
WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
OVER THE PANHANDLE. HAVE LEFT THE SEVERE WORDING OUT OF THE ZONES
FOR NOW.

OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA ON TUESDAY.
VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT BEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CANT RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION. EXPECT WARMER
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS WE DRY OUT SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTHWARD TUE EVE...WITH EXTRA PUSH
FROM MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SRN PANHANDLE/NRN SPLNS.
DID BRING HIGHER POPS BACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SW TUE NIGHT IN
CASE OF ADDITIONAL DVLPMNT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...OTHERWISE THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR POSSIBLE SVR
WX AS MCS TRACKS SE. WED IS APPEARING TO BE DRIER AS SHTWV RIDGE
BUILDS QUICKLY INTO WTX FROM THE SW. DID NOT WANT TO REMOVE AFTN
PRECIP CHCS COMPLETELY AS COMBINATION OF GREATER HEATING ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO TSTM INITIATION BUT DID FOLLOW
PREVIOUS TREND DOWNWARD. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON A
SOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROF DVLPMNT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. ONE SHTWV
TROF SEEN IN WV IMAGERY SW OF LOS ANGELES WILL MOVE TOWARD WTX LATE
THU AND FRI. HAVE KEPT TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DESPITE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE BOTH DAYS DUE TO LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHTWV. HAVE RAISED SKY COVER IN THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
SHTWV SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS LATE THU THRU FRI AS
IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO INCREASE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO WINDS EACH AFTN AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF DRYING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES APPEARS SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. INHERITED DEWPOINT GRIDS LOOK
GOOD AND DIDNT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. COULD NOT FIND A REASON TO TAKE
OUT LOW POPS THRU THE WEEKEND FOR AFTN/EVE TSTMS SO LEFT ALONE.
TEMPS MAY RISE TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS SW FLOW
ALOFT FCST TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  82  57  85 /  60  20  30  20
TULIA         59  83  57  85 /  50  30  40  20
PLAINVIEW     60  84  59  84 /  50  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     62  85  60  87 /  30  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  86  60  87 /  30  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    61  88  60  88 /  30  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     64  82  62  84 /  40  50  50  20
SPUR          64  85  63  86 /  30  30  40  20
ASPERMONT     64  85  64  87 /  10  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

18/33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
911 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040-310800-
BAILEY-CASTRO-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LAMB-PARMER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
911 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 360 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 3 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

BAILEY...CASTRO...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LAMB...PARMER...TERRY AND
YOAKUM

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.