Tornado in Florida, May 31, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
825 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...TEMPS MADE A NICE RECOVERY AFTER THE MORNING RAIN...AND
THE SUBSEQUENT CIRRUS DISSIPATION BY EARLY AFTN. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN COASTLINE...AND IN THE MID
80S ELSEWHERE. ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE JUICED...DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...AND UNSTABLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GOES SOUNDER AND
THE 00Z TBW SOUNDING. ATTIM MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...THOUGH
MAINLY SHRA...IS OVER THE NRN COUNTIES. ON CELL HAS STOOD OUT WEST
OF BAYPORT...AND HAVE SMW ON THIS ONE. ANOTHER SET OF TSTMS IS
FORMING OVER THE SRN COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF AN OUTFLOW BNDY
FORMED BY THE STRONG CELL NOW OVER WRN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. GIVEN
WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY...WILL BUMP POPS UP OVER THE SOUTH TO MATCH
CENTRAL ZONES.

AM CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX AS NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SSE...
THEN THE WINDS TURN SWRLY. GFS HAS A 50-60 KT 850MB JET OVER THE
EXTREME NE GULF BY 12Z TOMORROW. IF THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP...WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUPERCELLS DEVELOP...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE STRONGEST THREAT BEING UP NORTH...
AND OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA. CURRENT SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS THREAT
ALL ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND THE SVR STORM THAT DEVELOPED IN THE
EVERGLADES THIS EVENING INDICATES THE GENERAL INSTABILITY OVER THE
FA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WX STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE EARLIER
THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS UPDATES FROM THE SPC FOR THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR OUR AREA AND ANY UPDATES ON SEVERE WX THREAT OVERNIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE WORDING FOR STRONGER STORMS IN UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT BUOY 42036 NOT AS HIGH AS FORECAST AT THIS
POINT...BUT SEAS ARE AROUND 4 TO 5 FT. FOR BUOY 42003...IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND A LINE OF TSTMS IN THE ERN GULF...WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 40 KTS
WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. PREFER TO KEEP SCEC UP MAINLY FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
AND FOR POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND TSTMS.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WILL HEADLINE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ALL WATERS.

&&

RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
439 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-311453-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
439 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN BUT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST THREE WEEKS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE.

THERE IS A THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE
ENTIRE COAST UNTIL 7 AM. RAIN WILL PERSIST NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH CAN EXPECT A SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO A LOW TO MODERATE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS. A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE
CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER
WATER.  IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS
ACROSS THE RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN A DEEP AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN ACTIVE STORM PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER CUBA MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR FLOODING AND BE SURE TO PHONE IN YOUR RAIN FALL AMOUNTS.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

NOAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
849 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

FLZ042-010115-
CITRUS-
849 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM RACING TOWARD THE CITRUS COUNTY COAST...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT
OZELLO...HOMOSASSA SPRINGS AND CRYSTAL RIVER...BY 915 PM EDT.  THE
STORM SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 9 PM.  GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY
CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND
WIRES IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SHORT
LIVED SMALL TORNADO. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS.
&&
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FOR THIS CELL BY 9 PM.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

FLZ042-010145-
CITRUS-
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CITRUS COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT OZELLO AND
HOMOSASSA SPRINGS THROUGH 925 PM...AND CONTINUE TOWARD BEVERLY HILLS
AND INVERNESS BY 945 PM. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
945 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

FLZ042-010200-
CITRUS-
945 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTINUING TO RAKE CITRUS COUNTY NOW HEADED
FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH...WILL AFFECT INVERNESS AND
HERNANDO...UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES
IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

FLZ042-010245-
CITRUS-
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO CRANK NOW MOVING EAST OF HIGHWAY
41 PAST INVERNESS AND HERNANDO
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
INVERNESS...UNTIL 1045 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES
IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF
INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
&&
THE STORM SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY BETWEEN 1015 AND 1025 PM.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

FLZ042-010245-
CITRUS-
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO CRANK NOW MOVING EAST OF HIGHWAY
41 PAST INVERNESS AND HERNANDO...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
INVERNESS...UNTIL 1045 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES
IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF
INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
&&
THE STORM SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY BETWEEN 1015 AND 1025 PM.

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1049 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

FLZ042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-853-856-011000-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
1049 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 366 IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PASCO...
SUMTER...CITRUS...HILLSBOROUGH...SARASOTA...HERNANDO...POLK...
HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...DE SOTO...PINELLAS...LEE...CHARLOTTE AND MANATEE
COUNTIES.

A STRONG LATE SPRING STORM SYSTEM IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR STRONGER...AND BRIEF
TORNADOES...ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.