Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 25 to 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FROM LAST NIGHT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS GO UP FROM SWEETWATER TO
NORTH OF ABILENE IN THE VICINITY OF A COUPLE OF THESE BOUNDARIES.
A BIT OF A CAP STILL IN PLACE ...BUT WE COULD SEE THE CAP BREAK
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DECENT SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE VALUES POINT
TOWARD THESE STORMS GOING SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AS STORMS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEVELOP INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  LOW LEVEL JET AND BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
STORMS...GOOD INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALL POINT TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME HAIL...WIND AND GOOD RAINFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.  THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOMORROW NIGHT. HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THE GROUND IS CURRENTLY
QUITE DRY AND EXPECT THE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING.  LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS RAINFALL RATES COULD BE HIGH AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT COULD FALL OVER ALREADY
SATURATED AREAS. WITH RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAIN.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY.  OVERALL WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      64  78  61  80 /  70  70  40  50
SAN ANGELO   65  84  63  82 /  70  70  40  40
JUNCTION     69  86  63  80 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
215 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-261843-
BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-
JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN-
143 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
AREA. DUE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH
OF A ROBERT LEE TO BRADY LINE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
IF SO...THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...POSSIBLY CENTERED ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM STERLING CITY TO MASON. A FEW STORMS WITHIN THIS
COMPLEX MAY BE SEVERE.

ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE MAY ACTIVATE OUR SPOTTERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

23/HUBER