Heavy Snow in Texas, March 15 to 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
422 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE BARD WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE SAID /VERY
LIKELY THE LATTER CASE/...

...FIE CONTEMPTIBLE WHITE SNOWBEAST...BEGONE
THY ICY CORE DOTH REEK OF RANK TREACHERY.

THE SNOWBEAST /AKA UPPER TROUGH/ APPARENTLY LAUGHS IN THE FACE OF
FREE VERSE AND WINTER WEARY FORECASTERS AS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO SHUT DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHICH COULD
BRING A RESPITE FROM SNOWFALL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE SOME SNOW
RETURNS THIS EVENING. BUT THE POTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT...WHILE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS ONGOING. WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLES...
EXPECTING SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL...INCLUDING IN AREAS
THAT HAVE YET TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. OVER 6 INCHES REPORTED
IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND REPORTS OF 2 INCHES HAVE COME IN FOR
PARTS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST. SINCE WE
EXPECT MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VORT MAX MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO UPGRADE DONLEY AND WHEELER COUNTIES TO A 4 TO
6 INCH ACCUMULATION WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW. TEMPS ARE
COMPARABLY WARM IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY WITH NO SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
ALL YET IN WELLINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY HAD SOME SNOW. COLLINGSWORTH WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ON THE WHOLE...EXPECTING AS
MUCH AS 10 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY AND SLOWLY TAPERED THEM
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WITH THE FOCUS
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD BE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
MILDLY DOWNSLOPE. A VERY STRONG DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
THURSDAY...AND DRAGGING YET ANOTHER COOL FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
ON FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...LOOKS LIKE A SURFACE LOW SETS UP IN
WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE...GIVING RISE
TO ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. KEPT INHERITED 10S ON SUNDAY
GIVEN MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS ALL PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECTING SNOW
MELTING TO PREVENT US FROM REALIZING MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS. BUT
BY THE WEEKEND...OUGHT TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                33  24  38  26 /  90  90  40  10
BEAVER OK                  33  23  39  26 /  90  90  40  10
BOISE CITY OK              29  21  37  22 /  80  70  30  10
BORGER TX                  33  24  39  26 /  90  90  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              33  23  37  25 /  90  90  40  10
CANYON TX                  33  24  38  27 /  90  90  40  10
CLARENDON TX               35  26  41  31 /  90  90  40  10
DALHART TX                 31  23  37  24 /  80  80  30  10
GUYMON OK                  33  23  38  24 /  80  80  40  10
HEREFORD TX                33  24  37  26 /  90  90  40  10
LIPSCOMB TX                35  24  42  28 /  90  90  40  10
PAMPA TX                   35  25  41  28 /  90  90  40  10
SHAMROCK TX                35  28  42  30 /  80  90  40  10
WELLINGTON TX              37  30  43  31 /  80  90  40  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
      THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BEAVER...CIMARRON...AND TEXAS.
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
      FOLLOWING ZONES...ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
      DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
      LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
      ROBERTS...SHERMAN...AND WHEELER.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
      THE FOLLOWING ZONES...COLLINGSWORTH.

&&

KRAMAR

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-151200-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
604 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND UP TO 7 INCHES OR
MORE ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

...THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...
UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...

...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

GOEHRING