Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, July 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST U.S. REMAINS CENTERED OVER MEXICO KEEPING
THE REGION IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TO
ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.  MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPAND
IT ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.  WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS WEST AND ISOLATED EAST... WITH MOST PRECIP ENDING
BY MIDNIGHT.  AS OF NOON ALREADY GETTING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY AROUND 60... 12Z MAF
SOUNDING HAD PW OF NEARLY 1.4 INCHES... SO SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AS WELL AS DENNIS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
CWA.  THIS FLOW WILL TEND TO RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT ISOLATED POPS TO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND
THE WESTERN CWA WHERE OROGRAPHICAL LIFTING WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOCUS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL KEEP THE POPS BELOW 10
PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO
EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.  BY THURSDAY...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN LOWER HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              70  96  72  97 /  20  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  99  71  98 /  30  20   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  75 100  73  99 /  20  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  96  73  98 /  30  10   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  94  69  95 /  30  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   68  97  72  98 /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   60  92  62  92 /  40  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  98  73  98 /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  70  98  73  98 /  20  10   0  10
WINK TX                    73 102  73 101 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

72/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-111811-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 (130 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A CARLSBAD TO
PECOS TO FORT STOCKTON LINE. STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE STRONG WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING GENERALLY WEST OF A
HOBBS TO BAKERSFIELD LINE.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND