Flash Flood in Texas, August 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.AVIATION...
IT/S A HARD CALL FOR AVIATION CONDITIONS AT LOCAL AIRPORTS. AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION WILL PERSIST WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF KDFW TRACON TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME CONVECTION WILL TRACK NEAR OR
ACROSS THE KDFW TRACON...BUT MOSTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE AROUND KAFW
AND KFTW.  HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL AFTER
16Z.  EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO DIMINISH LOCALLY THIS EVENING THEN
RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY VFR BLO 6000FT
AND OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE AREAS. WINDS SOUTHERLY 9-15KTS TODAY AND
6-12KT TONIGHT.

AS FOR KACT...BRIEFLY BKN-OVC015 THRU 15Z THEN VFR WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS 8-14KTS TODAY AND 5-10KTS TONIGHT.  SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AROUND KACT THIS MORNING AND WDLY SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TEMPO GROUP. 75

&&

.DISCUSSION...
418 AM.
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR A OKLAHOMA
CITY...FREDRICK...VERNON...TO MIDLAND LINE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
WEST OF THE REGION WAS AIDING STORM FORMATION WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GENERALLY WEST OF A GAINESVILLE...WEATHERFORD...TO
COMANCHE LINE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD IN THESE
WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CHANGE
VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION. THE RAIN SHOULD END THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND BRINGS DRY
AND MORE STABLE AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  77  94  77 /  40  40  30  20
WACO, TX              92  76  95  76 /  30  30  30  20
PARIS, TX             97  73  96  72 /  40  40  40  20
DENTON, TX            92  73  92  74 /  50  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          92  74  94  77 /  40  40  30  20
DALLAS, TX            93  77  94  77 /  40  40  30  20
TERRELL, TX           93  75  95  75 /  30  30  30  20
CORSICANA,TX          93  75  95  75 /  30  30  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ100-TXZ101-
TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ129.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
440 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-142100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
440 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF
AN EASTLAND TO DECATUR AND MONTAGUE LINE TODAY AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS  OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

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